Normally, the New York Racing Association’s big Independence Day races are held in New York City, but not this year where racing gets rolling early in upstate New York. Yes, that’s right we get an early start at Saratoga this week, including a very strong card on the Fourth of July. The slate includes a trio of graded stakes, headlined the $1M Belmont Derby (G1). Here are a few horses I will be leaning on (assuming the price remains at the ML odds or higher) on the holiday card.

Race 4

My first play of the day comes in this MSW at 1 1/16-miles over the Inner Turf where I expect #7 Tom Collins to take plenty of public support after finishing third in a similar spot during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival last month. The Frosted colt should probably find a way to hit the board again, but has had good chances with little success in his last couple of tries.
I prefer the more lightly-raced #5 Profound. The son of Twirling Candy debuted last summer at the Spa and was sent off the 2-1-post time favorite for trainer Cherie DeVaux. He had some trouble that day, failed to the hit board, and was given time off until Kentucky Oaks Day where he came back and battled on the lead along the rail in a race that fell apart late. The $240k Keeneland September 2023 purchase puts back-to-back races together for the first time in his career and has clearly been well-meant from the start. Expect a career best run under jockey Jose Ortiz.

Play: #5 Profound

//

Race 9: Belmont Derby (G1)

There is a noticeable lack of early speed in this 9-furlong affair for 3YOs run over the Saratoga lawn. This should benefit Florida-bred #1 Tank most. The Adios Charlie colt leaves the Sunshine State for the first time after rattling off a trio of wins against lesser dating back to the end of March. He lures Luis Saez and is dangerous on the front end, but the class hike combined with the added ground leads me to believe at least one horse will get to him in the final sixteenth of a mile.

#5 Test Score is not a speed horse, but the son of Lookin At Lucky should have enough early foot to find a comfortable spot in the second tier, hopefully in the pocket a couple of lengths off Tank. The Amerman Racing homebred has hit the board in all 3 starts as a 3YO, including a runner-up effort last out in the American Turf (G1) when he was down on the inside on a weekend where the outside was certainly the place to be on the Churchill Downs grass. Test Score still finished strong to earn second and has a big shot to earn his first Grade 1 if jockey Manny Franco can avoid leaving his colt with too much to do late.

Play: #5 Test Score

//

Race 10: Suburban (G2)

There is absolutely no doubt Big Cap (G1) winner #4 Locked is the one to beat in this year’s Suburban. The Gun Runner colt ran one of the best races this year two-back at Santa Anita Park, but regressed massively two months later in the Alysheba (G2). To be fair, he did not have things his way that afternoon in Louisville, but still should have put in more of a run. If the Todd Pletcher trainee gets back to his effort out west they are running for second, but that is a big if at his likely price after his run last out.

I will take a swing against the likely heavy chalk with #8 Awesome Aaron. The Practical Joke gelding has improved steadily since being claimed by trainer Norm Casse for $40k last September. Casse removed the blinkers two starts back and the 6YO has taken another big step forward evidenced by his win going away in the Pimlico Special (G3) despite being caught three-wide throughout. There is not a ton of speed signed on in this race either, so hopefully Irad Ortiz Jr. is aggressive out of the gate. I like this one’s chances of running another big one in his first start in New York since the barn change.

Play: #8 Awesome Aaron

Happy 4th!