This week features a few new promotions at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet, including yet another Hit & Split opportunity on a big Saturday afternoon card. This week the focus is the late Pick 4 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which includes both the Indiana Oaks (G3) and the featured Indiana Derby (G3). $2500 is up for grabs for those who register for the sequence kicks off with an Indiana-bred stake in Race 10 (5:16 PM eastern) and concludes with a MSW over the sod. Let’s get to it.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 10: Ellen’s Lucky Star
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Hoosier Promise; 4 Off Pitch
Backups: 2 Sorry Not Sorry; 10 Innisfree Lass

Forecast: A full-field two-turn turf race for Indiana-bred fillies kicks things off where #4 Off Pitch was made the significant 5-2-ML favorite after almost besting a field of open company allowance foes at odds of 75-1 on June 23. The Mo Town filly ran her faster career race on the surface switch and did so against stronger competition than she encounters today, but I am leery of going all-in with her. She not only is coming back quickly, but it feels like last time was the time to bet her at that massive price.

#7 Hoosier Promise will offer far greater value and is likely to be a Win bet for me if she holds close to her 12-1-morning line offering. The Mitole filly stretched out to a route of ground for the first time on June 16 in a race originally scheduled for the grass. It was moved to the main track where trainer Anthony Granitz added blinkers for the initial time as well. This led to a career best effort and a win going away. There is some versatile pedigree on the dam side leading me to believe this gal is quite live at double-digit odds.


Race 11: Indiana Oaks (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Clicquot
Backups: 1 Sturgeon Moon

Forecast: This year’s Indiana Oaks features a rematch between the top two finishers from a first-level allowance event run at Churchill Downs at the end of May. #5 Heavenly Sunset was slightly favored over #2 Clicquot, but it was Clicquot proving much the best despite just a decent break from the gate. Clicquot is likely to be the public choice in Shelbyville on Saturday afternoon and deservingly so. She beat the Brad Cox trainee on the square 5 weeks ago, draws favorably along the rail, and is my non-creative top choice.
#1 Sturgeon Moon tries graded stakes foes in her first start for trainer Will Walden. The Instagrand filly ran some big races under the care of Paulo Lobo as a 2YO and comes in off a strong series of drills at Keeneland for a barn clicking at 25% on the year. If she is ready to fire fresh, she is far from impossible.


Race 12: Indiana Derby (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Big Truzz (pictured)
Backups: 3 Coal Battle

Forecast: #3 Coal Battle brings the strongest resume into this year’s Indiana Derby. The Lonnie Briley trainee rattled off 4 straight wins last fall and winter, but was outrun in his two Grade 1 tries. He tried hard to the wire chasing lone speed East Avenue in the Matt Winn (G3) suggesting he has plenty of fight left in him. He is in with his best shot since the winter starts in Arkansas and should run his race, but I prefer #7 Big Truzz. The son of Justify heads into his first two-turn start just 1 for 3, but the losses both came to the serious one-turn Brad Cox trainee Patch Adams. This colt has a ton of untapped talent and is bred to handle the added ground. I hope he lives up to my expectations.


Race 13:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Casso Hill; 7 Run Lily
Backups: 1 Elite Heat

Forecast: The sequence concludes with a MSW for fillies and mares at 1 1/16-miles over the Horseshoe Indy sod where #1 Elite Heat is likely to take a ton of money. The Brad Cox trainee is owned by Myracehorse and has gone off at odds of 5-2 in all three of her starts to date. She comes in off a runner-up effort to a Chad Brown second-time starter at Tampa Bay and has the strongest resume, but I do not trust her. So, I will opt to lean on a pair of less proven commodities.

#5 Casso Hill is a first-time starter for the aforementioned Will Walden barn. The Oxo Equine homebred is out of a War Front mare that ran second going long on the grass at Belmont Park in her debut and comes in off a steady series of fitness drills. Walden legs up Hall of Famer John Velazquez. I will also use #7 Run Lily on all tickets. The Doug Cowans trainee has not raced in 13 months, but put in a pair of solid efforts over this course when we saw her last. She is another filly capable of springing the upset if she is fit off the extended break.