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I will provide analysis for the Opening Day sequence and return with the same on Saturday and Sunday. Let’s hit a couple to kick the big meet off!

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 7:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5 Lost Horizon; 6 Resurge
Backups: 2 Endorse

Forecast: The race I am looking forward to most on Opening Day is this 9-furlong MSW event for the ladies over the main track. My excitement comes from three second-time starters who stretch out for the first time and exit a 7-furlong MSW event during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival last month. It was Repole Stable’s #2 Endorse that took all the money that day going off a 4-5. The Curlin filly battled early and tired late to finish third, but lost little in defeat since she had to work in the early stages at a challenging first out distance. She has every reason to move forward, but her price will certainly reflect that. From a gambling perspective I much prefer a pair of fillies that failed to hit the board in the aforementioned June 6 race, but should certainly be set for major improvement.

#6 Resurge is yet a another Juddmonte homebred out of the star filly Close Hatches making her a half-sister to Tacticus, Scylla, and Batten Down. She was outsprinted early, but made a middle move before tiring late in her first start. If she can run, a big move forward is likely to come, but I prefer #5 Lost Horizon. The Into Mischief filly is out Chilean-bred Wow Cat. Wow Cat was a monster in her native land and came over to the same barn and put forth a number of strong efforts against graded stakes foes, including a runner-up finish to Monomoy Girl in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). This Chad Brown trainee ran extremely well first out considering she was wide much of the way on a day at the Spa where the inside was the place to be. Hopefully, she shows more speed on the stretch out. If so, she should be tough to hold off.


Race 8:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Ozara; 7 Charlottesapproval; 5 Fun With Flags
Backups: None

Forecast: The first stake race of the summer meeting drew enough interest for the New York Racing Association to split into two divisions. The first heat comes in Race 5.

#4 Movin’ On Up is listed as the heavy 6-5-ML favorite in the second heat after a pair of third place runs over the Churchill Downs lawn this spring. They came against better competition, but the 4YO filly seemed to lack serious energy late in both starts in Louisville. The effort two-back in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) was a bit more forgivable since she was down on the tiring inside for a good portion of that one-mile journey, but she really fell flat with little excuse in the Mint Julep (G3). I am willing to take her on at a likely short price.

#1 Ozara is my lukewarm top choice. The Miguel Clement trainee was forced to make a wide move into the lane last out in the Eatontown (G3) while the eventual winner had a much better trip up the rail. She won her only start over this course and gets Dylan Davis this time. #7 Charlottesapproval has to prove herself outside of Canada, but has plenty of upside still. She stretches back out to two-turns for Mark Casse after a win off the bench sprinting over the Woodbine lawn. #5 Fun With Flags has not performed well since arriving in the States, but never got to run last out at Monmouth Park. Flavien Prat jumping aboard should lead to a better voyage.


Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Our Liberty Belle
Backups: None

Forecast: The pace should be honest in this $20k starter at 6-furlongs, which should benefit 3-1-ML favorite #5 Our Liberty Belle. The Florida-bred has been freshened up by trainer Wayne Potts since a pair of solid performances at nice prices going one-mile at Aqueduct. The Tec Racing mare needs to avoid leaving herself with too much to do late, but Potts found a great spot for her return. The 7-time winner is 3 for 5 at the distance and should be rolling late under the bug boy Christopher Elliott.


Race 10:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Best Impression; 9 Toxic Girl; 1 Handle On You; 11 Bella Voce
Backups: None

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in the finale other than being against likely pacesetter #3 Blue Eyed Scout. The daughter of King for a Day was claimed last out by trainer Horacio DePaz out of a similar spot at Aqueduct where she made an easy lead as the 6-5-favorite, but had nothing left in the lane. She has lost three straight at odds of 5-2 or less and is worth fading in a race where several can win if #7 Best Impression does not dominate these on the big class drop for trainer Phil Serpe.

Good luck on Opening Day!