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Frank Carulli: Colonial Downs Pick 3 Analysis | Friday, July 11, 2025

by Frank Carulli

July 10, 2025

Rain could dampen opening week at Colonial Downs’ Summer Meet in New Kent, VA, with dozens of turf races scheduled. The advance weather forecast calls for a 55 to 75 percent chance of precipitation all week. We’ll look to an early Pick 3 on the Friday card with two of the races on the main track and a 10-horse maiden sprint to cap the sequence.

CNL 2nd race (4:30 p.m. EST) -- MAX CAPACITY’s debut bullet workout May 30 at Laurel Park was a full second faster than all but three others who breezed 4F that day. The $38,000 sales buy has kept busy since then for trainer Richard Sillaman, who has won with 6 of his last 18 starters at various venues. OUR DAY WILL COME also shows a flashy work tab at Laurel for Phillip Capuano, who is 7-for-38 with a positive R.O.I and 48-percent in the money with first-time starters in his first three years as a trainer. The horse’s dam, Defoe Street, was 3-for-7 on an off track. HUTCHINSON prepped at Keeneland for his first start and hopes to follow the lead of his sire, Tiz The Law, a multiple Grade 1 winner and Top 20 freshman sire this year and his dam, Angie Grand, a debut Maiden Special Weight winner at Parx. MORE THAN CUTE ran a deceptively good 4-1/2F race with Lasix on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs and is worth using at 30-1 in a field with seven first-time starters. He was bumped inward at the break, fanned 6-wide at the top of the stretch as he gathered momentum and galloped out ahead of the runaway winner.

CNL 3rd race (5:00 p.m. EST) -- SCHRADER, a generous 12-1 on the morning line, hit peak form before a troubled trip last out. He won by 8 lengths in a ‘double key’ $40,000 claiming sprint at today’s distance three starts ago. Then he survived a front-end duel in allowance company, but ‘wandered’ in mid-stretch and finished second between a next-out allowance winner and runner-up who posted 82 and 81 Beyer speed figures, respectively. EASTBOSTONBENNY is a new horse of late, carrying his speed to back-to-back scores after a year-long winless drought. His uncoupled stablemate, VILLAGE PERSON, overcame fractious gate behavior and rallied to win in his debut at the Colonial Downs Spring Meet. CRAB DADDY, stakes-placed as 2-year-old, finished 5-1/2 lengths ahead of SCHRADER to finish second in an allowance race and projects an ideal stalking trip from post 9.

CNL 4th race (5:40 p.m. EST) -- CAPTAIN EDDIE seeks a duplicate of his first start on the turf. He shook a duel at the quarter pole and drew clear, only to get caught by Turbulent Force, who went wire-to-wire in a follow-up $75,000 optional claiming sprint. TRANSACTIONAL GUY, squeezed back to 10th in a well-bet debut, found his best stride in the 6-path in mid-stretch and is sure to draw a lot of attention for Team Russell. AMERICAN LITIGATOR showed some ability sprinting to start his career, returns to a sprint with blinkers back on and looms a longshot possibility. His dam, Laughing Falcon, capped a 3-for-3 start to her career with a stakes win on the grass. SAMDINI arrives off a recent bullet workout on Turfway Park’s all-weather track for trainer Ethan West, who won with 3 of his last 6 first-time starters at odds of 7-1, 13-1 and 24-1.

Suggested $1 Pick 3
CNL 2nd Race: 1, 4, 6, 8
CNL 3rd Race: 3, 6, 9
CNL 4th Race: 2, 4, 8, 10
Cost: $48