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Scott Shapiro: Saratoga Sunday Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Scott Shapiro

July 13, 2025

Today marks the final day of 1ST/BET and Xpressbet’s Saratoga opening week late Pick 4 Hit & Split promotion, which hopefully many of you have taken advantage of over the first three days of the summer meeting -- earning your share of 1 million 1/ST Rewards Points daily. With heavy rain coming yesterday morning and evening, all races other than the featured Quick Call (G3) have be taken off the grass to protect the courses for the remainder of the meet.

One thing to keep an eye on early is if the inside continues to be the place to be, especially in dirt routes. Yesterday, it was a distinct advantage. If you were caught wide early, you likely were unlikely to be in the photo late.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 7:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Li’l Lang
Backups: 15 Leo’s Reward; 16 Refuah

Forecast: #15 Leo’s Reward and #16 Refuah are the ones to beat on the main track, but they are a bit tough to trust, especially if the rail is still the place to be. Therefore, I will make #1 Li’l Lang my lukewarm top choice. The Tapiture colt stretches out to a mile for the first time, but gets blinkers and last year’s Eclipse Award winner Flavien Prat. Trainer Jorge Abreu means business when he legs up Prat evidenced by their 23% record together over a 108-race sample. If he breaks well, expect him to be involved early in search of his third lifetime victory.


Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Gone and Forgotten
Backups: None

Forecast: The pace should be honest in the lone race within the sequence originally scheduled for the main track, which should benefit 3-1-ML second choice #9 Gone and Forgotten. The Linda Rice trainee broke well from her inside draw back on June 27 at Aqueduct, but was shuffled back considerably in a race dominated by one of the speeds. The Bustin Stones mare finished well to earn fourth and should get a more favorable race shape and trip this afternoon. Hopefully, jockey Jose Lezcano makes an effort to angle over early to save a bit of ground.


Race 9: Quick Call (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Insubordination
Backups: 2 Governor Sam

Forecast: Over the last two years, trainer George Weaver is 35 for 151 in turf sprints. He holds a strong hand in the Sunday feature where #2 Governor Sam was made the heavy 6-5-favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona after a pair of speed and fade efforts at Churchill Downs. The last one was highly forgivable since it came over an off track and two-back he ran better than his third-place effort looks in the William Walker in late April. He is legitimate, but there is a lot of speed signed on to his outside, so he certainly will have to earn it.

I am hopeful the race sets up for his stablemate #6 Insubordination. The Irish-bred was caught in a tight spot in the second tier early on in the Paradise Creek chasing dominant winner Clock Tower, but should get a more favorable voyage in this spot with the move to an outside draw and plenty of early zip signed on. Hopefully, Javier Castellano figured him out a little bit last time and opts to settle and finish against this bunch.


Race 10:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 5 Mischievous Trick; 7 Calling An Audible; 8 Inamorata; 9 Soho Nights; 12 Daytime Drama; 16 Lady Looie
Backups: None

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this state-bred maiden claimer originally scheduled for the lawn, so I will use several in hopes of beating the main track only runner that could get over bet. #15 Salty Sunset is going to look favorable to the public in this group after scratches, but has had 7 chances already against some soft groups. There are plenty of horses in here with speed to make her work and upside to improve, but other than that this one is a grab bag. Watch early and hope to find clues as to how the track is playing to help you narrow down!

Good luck!