The day has finally come for the season to wrap up in Hong Kong before taking a brief hiatus. As sad of a day as it may be for those of us losing sleep over racing on the other side of the world, we have one more card to tackle and one more chance to make our stacks a little fatter. Let’s see what we can find!

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – July 16

Past Performances 
Speed Pro Pace Projections

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses with a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – 9 YOU’REMYEVERYTHING
Exacta Key Box – 9 w/ 3,5,11

Notes: At 27/1, 9 YOU’REMYEVERYTHING looks like a value grab to me. His Prime Burke Ratings are close to the best in this field, and from a raw speed perspective he’s about as fast as anyone in the field. In his last trip, he was boxed in with 200 meters to go and had to find room three lanes from the rail. He ran out of track, but with a better trip I think he could be one of the better closers on paper. He’s running back after just a week, which gives me a bit of pause, but the price is too juicy to ignore.

Race 2 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 2 THUNDER PRINCE
Exacta – 2 w/ 8

Notes: 2 THUNDER PRINCE is picking up Hong Kong’s top mount in Zac Purton, who is 10-for-47 and in the money in 22 of those starts for trainer Chris So Wai-yin. His late-race dash is exceptional, and I think this is the race where this four-year-old finally puts it together in the Class 4 ranks. With Purton in the irons, I expect this gelding to take some money, but 8 FLYING WROTE is right there in the next tier of PBR ratings to round out a cold 1-2 punch.

Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 4 TACTICAL COMMAND
Exacta – 4 w/ 1

Notes: Picture this with me. 1 DANCING CLASSICS goes to the front from the tenth post. From inside, he’s got company from 6 BITS SUPERSTAR, 7 HONEST WITNESS, and 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY. Sure, DANCING CLASSICS is the best of this bunch but settled inside behind this pack is 4 TACTICAL COMMAND waiting for his window to open. 200 meters to go, the front runners start to drop, and our top choice emerges. Nailed at the wire, down goes the heavy favorite. Anyway, I’m gonna bet 4 TACTICAL COMMAND at anything close to 5/1 or better.

Race 8 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 5,6,11

Notes: Our routine numbers play is back again for the penultimate race of the Hong Kong season. I have two horses rated higher than these three in the PBR table, those being 2 RAGING BLIZZARD and 12 STORM RIDER. However, we’re only going six furlongs, and my two top-rated choices are likely to be far off the pace. That would be helpful if there was a blazing speed expected, but I think this one plays fairly and sets up some combination of our three Quinella choices to take over late from just off the pace.

Good luck!