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Scott Shapiro: Saratoga Spot Plays | Saturday, July 19, 2025

by Scott Shapiro

July 18, 2025

The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club is opening this weekend and Saturday is the biggest day of the year at Monmouth Park, but that does not mean that Saratoga’s Saturday slate is not worth diving into as well. The 12-race card has a trio of graded stakes races and it continues this week’s “Saratoga Sevens” Money Back Special Offer at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet where you get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third in Race 7. As always, just remember to register on the promotional landing page.

Here are a few plays I like on the Saratoga card, including my Money Back play in the seventh!

Race 4:

The pace should be contentious in this first-level allowance event at 6-furlongs, which should set things up for a runner that can settle early and finish with energy late. The public is likely to go to #5 Roswell to fill that role. The Into Mischief filly brings the best resume in having hit the board in 6 of 9 and earning nearly $150k to date, but she has struggled to find the winner’s circle. In fact, since her win on debut at Gulfstream Park in January ’24, the Bill Mott trainee has failed at 3-1 or lower five times. She is likely to hit the board, but not the type of horse I use on top.

I much prefer #6 Strong State. This daughter of Tom’s d’Etat ran two solid races versus restricted special weight company to kick off her career before being thrown into the deep end by trainer Al Stall, Jr. The bargain basement $18,000 Keeneland January ’23 purchase held her own in the Spinaway (G1) and Pocahontas (G3) before going to the sidelines until early June. It could have been natural maturation, the addition of Lasix, the class drop, or all of the above, but this filly ran extremely well to best a field of starter foes in Louisville off the bench. She draws perfectly outside the speeds and appears poised to make it two wins in a row to kick off her 3YO campaign.

Play: #6 Strong State (9-2 ML)

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Race 7
Hopefully some of you have taken advantage of the “Saratoga Sevens’ Money Back Special Offer to start the racing week at the Spa. I am hopeful to not need the “insurance” with my play in this MSW for 2YOs at 6-furlongs over the main track where I like #3 Stradale. The Yaupon colt must have looked the part at the OBS April sale earlier this year to have commanded $1.3M. Sure, the mare is a half-sister to $851k earner Stormy Lucy, but there is little I found in the pedigree to suggest selling for over 50 times his sire’s stud fee. The Kaleem Shah owned runner looks quick and meets a field of mostly other firsters that likely will need the race. Hopefully, we get the morning line offering on what could be another quality Steve Asmussen sprinter.

Play: #3 Stradale (3-1 ML)

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Race 9: Caress (G3)

The first of the 3 aforementioned graded stakes is this 5.5-furlong dash over the lawn for fillies and mares where several exit last month’s Intercontinental (G2). The race was won in front running fashion by #6 Pipsy with #7 Future Is Now missing by a half-length. Both runners are in with a big shot again here, but I prefer the value of #8 Time to Dazzle. The Tracy Farmer owned filly makes her third start of the form cycle after a better than looks fourth-place finish in the Intercontinental when she was caught four-wide on the turn and understandably fell flat late. The daughter of Not This Time hopefully can avoid getting caught wide much of the way this time around. If so, she could turn the tables and earn her first graded stakes victory in the States.

Play: #8 Time to Dazzle (8-1 ML)