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Jeremy Plonk: $26K Pick 5 Carryover Analysis for Colonial | Wednesday, July 23, 2025

by Jeremy Plonk

July 23, 2025

Colonial Downs offers a $26,901 carryover in its late pick 5 this afternoon. The card gets underway at 12:30 pm ET, but the carryover sequence starts in Race 5 and that’s slated for 2:30 pm ET. With a six-figure carryover in Saratoga’s pick 6 running simultaneously, this wager might slip through the cracks with some players and be a good opportunity. Weather looks hot and dry.

Let’s take a look.

Race 5

This maiden claiming turf sprint drew a capacity field of 12. Favorites are 1-9 at the meet in maiden claiming turf races, but the winners all paid between $7-$21 and were competitive betting races. Many logical options here and little separation. Include #1 Citified, #3 Drifting, #4 Fontabelle for sure, considering #8 Granuaile, #7 Intel Agent, #11 Native Mischief.

Race 6

Allowance runners go the rare, 1-turn trip of 1-1/8 miles out the backstretch chute on the dirt course with 7 entered. Given the field size, the temptation to single here will be strong for many players and the last-out victory and speed figure by #1 Lured Away probably attracts more attention than it should. It’s #4 Start Mo Up that interests most in a race without much pace and the aggressive rider Paco Lopez taking over in the saddle off his maiden breaker at Churchill. That’s my top choice, but will include #1 Lured Away as well.

Race 7

A capacity field of bottom-level claimers match up over a turf mile in this one. There’s very little positive form to embrace among these. #3 Psychedelic intrigues with a good post draw for high-percentage trainer Kelsey Danner. Good value at 8-1 morning line and the play. #7 Bali Kuta makes the most sense otherwise, while I stand against some lower-priced horses drawn wide that don’t have a big edge and will be giving away ground.

Race 8

Ten first-level (N1X) allowance runners stretch out to 1-3/16 miles on turf. #5 Chantilly Road was too close to a fast pace at Monmouth last time and should be more effective behind what appears to be a more rational tempo. Should offer fair value around 4-1. Classy #6 Bottle Rocket and #5 Catalyzed deserve obvious looks vs. these as well, with preference to the former if having to cut for budget.

Race 9

The sequence wraps with this Virginia-restricted turf allowance and its field of 9 entered. #1 Public Defender shipped here from Florida to win in September off a long layoff and returns freshened since January with a superb draw. #5 Venomous Vixen got absolutely no pace help and still won June 5 at Delaware when beating a solid field. The one to beat as the logical morning-line favorite and must include in what feels like a 2-deep situation for me.