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Frank Carulli: Saratoga Amsterdam Stakes Pick 3 Analysis | Friday, July 25, 2025

by Frank Carulli

July 24, 2025

World Record blazed to a wire-to-wire victory in 1:16-1/5 in last year’s Amsterdam Stakes at Saratoga. Macho Music will try to do the same from the inside post this Friday in the 6-1/2 furlong Grade 2 feature for 3-year-olds. The Amsterdam is the middle leg of a $1 Late Pick 3 wager that shapes up this way:

SAR 8th race (5:19 p.m. EST) -- SHEER WILL takes a magnified class drop after facing three rivals who posted an average 82 Beyer, not to mention Grade 1-placed favorite Snowyte, in a May 15 mile at Aqueduct. She ‘surged home late’ in a 6F sprint prior to that, finishing a length behind the favorite who posted an 82 Beyer in a follow-up romp. CARA’S CHIANTE earned the top speed figure in the field in her debut despite being reluctant to load and ‘bumped soundly’ at the start in a MSW sprint. She broke alertly in her second start but was pressed by the 4-to-5 favorite and others before a pair of late-running longshots passed by them all. She tried blinkers at Saratoga but another rough start did her in. KATE BARRY, a $200,000 sales buy, debuts off a 3/33 breezing workout in :48-4/5 on the Saratoga training track. Trainer Raymond Handal sent out a 7-1 debut winner in the same spot a year ago. DARTY TIME pressed the 32-1 upset winner and the favorite in the 3-path before he was floated 6-wide and tired in the stretch in a well-bet debut at Churchill Downs.

SAR 9th race (5:53 p.m. EST) -- Go deep on the ticket in the $200,000 Grade 2 Amsterdam at 6-1/2F. MACHO MUSIC (pictured), the lone graded stakes winner in the field, blazed through the opening half mile in less than 45 seconds in his last four starts at longer distances than today. He widened his lead in the stretch to spring a 13-1 upset in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile, beating the likes of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Gaming and Madaket Road, who turned the tables on him and finished second in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens on a muddy Saratoga track. He runs his shortest distance this year and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. to pilot for the first time. GARAMOND, a first-out winner at this distance, earned the top speed figure in the field when he shrugged off the 1-to-9 favorite in a three-horse allowance race. He raced erratically while pinned in behind rivals on a sloppy track last out, edging closer on the turn but fading badly in the stretch. SMOKEN WICKED, Grade 2-placed in his first start at Saratoga last fall, set the pace in the Grade 1 Hopeful next out and continued his best running in long sprints with a runaway allowance win and two seconds in minor stakes. T KRAFT showed marked improvement to start his sophomore season with three consecutive wins at Aqueduct, capped by a neck victory in his first stakes try. He was freshened three months, ranged up inside of the leaders in the Woody Stephens but lacked stretch kick in the muddy going. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s hopes for a fifth Amsterdam hinge on a pair of late runners uncoupled in the wagering. GATE TO WIRE benefited from a torrid pace in his lone sprint try on a fast track and ran away from MACHO MUSIC to win the Swale Stakes at 13-1. UNCAGED, well-beaten in the Grade 1 Belmont, is reunited with jockey Kendrick Carmouche, who coaxed a last-to-first move out of him in a one-turn, one mile allowance after a bobbled start. GUNMETAL drew clear to win two 6F races with 96 and 93 Beyers, respectively, but he hit the gate in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens and finished last behind winning stablemate Patch Adams (3-6, $497k).

SAR 10th race (6:27 p.m. EST) -- CATHOLIC EDITION, unhurried to the far turn, rallied widest and finished third in a well-bet, one mile debut. She flattened out late against the rail-riding winner and will need some pace flow in this longer route. PROFESSOR GRACE, who chased the 3-to-5 winner in a 6F dirt sprint two back, could provide that pace if she avoids recurring trouble lines. She improved and finished behind the three favorites in MSW company at this distance last out. The sire of both runners, Catholic Boy, was 5-for-6 on turf with more than $1 million in grass earnings and three graded stakes victories in photo finishes.

Suggested $1 Pick 3
SAR 8th Race: 1, 3, 4, 6
SAR 9th Race: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
SAR 10th Race: 3, 4
Cost: $48