The Lead:
Saratoga's top race for Breeders' Cup Classic hopefuls brings together a star-studded field on Saturday for the $1 million Whitney. The race has been run for nearly a century, and only 3 horses have won it on multiple occasions: Discovery, Kelso and Commentator. That could change Saturday when 2023 winner White Abarrio looks for a second Whitney trophy, but the '23 Breeders' Cup Classic winner has no less than the '24 Classic 1-2 finishers in his path, Sierra Leone and Fierceness. The Whitney is 1 of 5 graded stakes on a card that has 3 other Grade 1s, and goes as Race 11.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the $5,000 late pick 4 and pick 5 Hit & Split promoitions for Saratoga on Saturday ($2,500 each sequence).

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners abound including WHITE ABARRIO, FIERCENESS, SIERRA LEONE, MINDFRAME and HIGHLAND FALLS. Both SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING and POST TIME are Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. This is the cream of the crop.
​​
Pace:
Longshot MAMA'S GOLD may show the proverbial cheap speed, while pace-pressers like MINDFRAME (if he goes), CONTRARY THINKING (potential rabbit), FIERCENESS, SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING, HIGHLAND FALLS and WHITE ABARRIO won't want to be too far out of it. The pace looks moderate to above average, but not fast, for 9 furlongs at this class level.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-MINDFRAME: Expecting to scratch barring a defection from Todd Pletcher stablemate Fierceness, he's an obvious leading contender if they opt to run him. Wins in the Gulfstream Mile, Churchill Downs Stakes and 2-turn Stephen Foster have him 3-3 and in the Horse of the Year mix. Pletcher is a 4-time winner of this race and this is the horse to beat if he runs, having an advantage from the rail over 9 furlongs at hte Spa.

#2-SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING: Press and fade fifth in this race last year against an overall much weaker field than this, he's been exposed at the highest levels as just short of the best over the years. Hot-riding Jose Ortiz and what could be a rail trip help his cause, but more than a minor placing would be a big achievement.

#3-HIGHLAND FALLS: 1-turn allowance win at Aqueduct is the lone start this year for the 2024 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner over this track. His second-off-the-layoff form isn't obvious in his form, but he did regress slightly from his debut to his second start. Brad Cox won this race in 2021 with Knicks Go. Flavien Prat jumps to ride Sierra Leone; capable Luis Saez takes over the mount.

#4-MAMA'S GOLD: New York-bred restricted stakes winner is 0-3 over the Saratoga track and should factor only in the pace of the Whitney. Rajiv Maragh won this race in 2011 with Tizway, but this would be an epic heist if successful on a horse 0-4 this year.

#5-SIERRA LEONE: Placed locally last year in the Belmont, Jim Dandy and Travers, the consistent closer has reached the wire first only once in his last 7 starts. You know he'll finish, but can he get over the top like he did at 10F last year in the Breeders' Cup at Del Mar? His Stephen Foster second was a step in the right direction after a puzzling 4-year-old return at Fair Grounds. No way to count him out, but tough to trust without other wagering support.

#6-DISARM: Underachiever has a couple of allowance wins with Lasix on his ledger that is surrounded by promising, but short-of-delivery, efforts in major stakes. He's 1-for-5 at the Spa and hasn't had much more lucky paired with Joel Rosario, as he will be Saturday. Rosario has a pair of Whitney wins, while trainer Steve Asmussen won this in 2017 with the great Gun Runner, Disarm's sire.

#7-WHITE ABARRIO (pictured): His 2023 whirlwind Whitney-Breeders' Cup Classic double when transferred to Rick Dutrow looked like an abberation until he finally reproduced that stardom for Saffie Joseph Jr. in January's Pegasus World Cup. A bumpy ride in the Met Mile over a sloppy track and out of the Wilson Chute probably can be forgiven. His July 15 workout indicates he's sharpened. Irad Ortiz Jr. is back in his regular perch and seeks a record-tying fifth Whitney win, which would match Pat Day and Jerry Bailey's race record.

#8-CONTRARY THINKING: Aqueduct allowance winner in June has never run beyond a mile and is entered as a rabbit for stablemate Sierra Leone. Well-bred Into Mischief-Valadorna colt (a half-brother to Preakness fourth Tuscan Gold) will have his stakes day, but not likely this Saturday.

#9-FIERCENESS: Saratoga specialist debuted a winner here in 2023, won the Jim Dandy and Travers locally in 2024 and returned last month for a second-place effort in the Met Mile to recently retired sprinter Raging Torrent. He's 3-for-4 (with a second) at the Spa, while the rest of this field is 3-for-20 combined. Advantage: Fierceness. Trainer Todd Pletcher's 4 Whitney wins, most recently 2022 with Life Is Good, are second only to John Gaver Sr.'s 5 wins in the 1940s and '50s. John Velazquez has won this race 4 times, 3 of them with Pletcher, and can tie Pat Day and Jerry Bailey's Whitney record of 5 career scores.

#10-POST TIME: Late-running mile specialist makes his third straight 2-turn start at 9 furlongs while stepping up in class. Maryland's premier Thoroughbred was not overmatched here a year ago when third in the Whitney, but had a ground-saving trip against a decidedly weaker field. He's my favorite horse in training, but this lineup, distance, pace scenario and post are legitimate barriers to backing beyond a minor award. He'll give his best effort; he always does.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
FIERCENESS loves Saratoga and is 9-11 in the trifecta lifetime.

Best Longshot Contender:
None projected in the exacta mix, but deep exotics could do worse than POST TIME's 18-for-18 career mark in the top-3.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 exacta FIERCENESS over WHITE ABARRIO. $20 exacta WHITE ABARRIO over FIERCENESS.