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Jeremy Plonk: Longacres Mile Pick 4 Hit & Split Analysis at Emerald Downs | Sunday, August 17, 2025

by Jeremy Plonk

August 15, 2025

Sunday’s Longacres Mile Day at Emerald Downs features six stakes races all proudly presented by 1/ST BET. The final four make up a late pick four sequence that’s boosted by a 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion when you bet via 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The 90th edition of the Longacres Mile will be Leg B of the sequence, surround by two-turn route stakes throughout the action.

Race 8: Emerald Distaff

#6 Aloha Breeze won this race by 11 lengths last year and looks to be in equal form coming into the title defense. She’s twice outsprinted this meet #3 Lapush, who won last year’s Washington Oaks on this card against then-fellow sophomores. The return to a 1-1/16 miles trip is the X-factor in the third matchup and I won’t be surprised if Lapush doesn’t benefit. #1 Smiling Lady is beautifully drawn for her speed and makes a highly notable rider change to Manuel Americano, who is absolutely dominant in local route races. She might put a scare into them at a price.

Race: Longacres Mile

The Mile form promises a fast pace and that’s good news for the late-running veteran #8 Slew’s Tiz Whiz. He’s a Longacres Mile fixture, winning this race in 2022 and finishing third each of the past two years. The 7-year-old was as good as ever in winning the Governor’s Stakes sprinting and takes a familiar prep path to the main event. #10 Apprehend has been gangbusters in Canada since returning from a year and a half on the bench. The former Peter Miller Oaklawn/SoCal charge has plenty of back class to tap into and a versatile running style. There are other reasonable options in this race (many with some early pace), but in terms of finishers, I will put my faith and greenbacks on this pair.

Race: Muckleshoot Derby

#2 Si That Tiger has won 5 of his last 6, but notably that loss came in his only route try and that’s the 1-1/16 miles task here. The local options don’t appeal at the distance, however, making Turf Paradise Derby winner #1 Bodi Zafa the principal opposition late in the game. Difficult to get creative beyond this pair.

Race: Washington Oaks

Even-running sprinters often stretch out first time with success and that’s the play with #8 Race a Roany at what should be a solid price after an 8-1 fourth in the Kent Stakes behind many of these. It’s difficult to separate that group from the Kent but the move from a single turn to two really changes the dynamics in the Oaks. Jockey Manuel Americano makes the difference; he’s 25% wins, 48% in the exacta and a $1.17 ROI for every $1 bet in Emerald Downs routes since the start of 2024. Those numbers juice to 31% wins, 50% exacta and $1.87 ROI for every $1 bet when looking at horses moving sprint to route.

Suggested Ticket:

3,6,1 with 8,10 with 2,1 with 8 = $6 for each 50-cent play