The 90th running of the Prince of Wales Stakes returns Tuesday to Fort Erie, and King’s Plate winner Mansetti eyes the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. The uniqueness of the series north of the border is that it moves from Tapeta to dirt to turf by the time it ends in the Breeders Stakes. Which of the 7 runners handles dirt best will tell the tale of the Prince of Wales.

Mansetti is a son of Collected, whose prolific career on dirt included wins in the Sham, Lexington, Californian and Grade 1 Pacific Classic, while finishing second in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Gun Runner. Mansetti’s half-brother Straight Up G was a successful California-bred on dirt, winning the King Glorious at Los Alamitos and the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland, while finishing second in Santa Anita’s Cal Cup Derby. While Mansetti was a tired fifth in the Jerome on dirt at Aqueduct in his only try over the footing, that was against open company and the only start without Lasix in his career – he’ll race on Lasix at Fort Erie. He had a strong, local half-mile workout over the dirt for this.

Faber finished third on dirt at Fair Grounds in allowance company last December 26, but was beaten 9 lengths in a field of 4. The 41-1 sixth-place finisher in the King’s Plate has more than 6 lengths to make up on Mansetti on Tuesday. Like that one’s sire Collected, Faber is by another Bob Baffert dirt dynamo in sire Improbable – also a Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up (2020). Improbable won the Whitney, Hollywood Gold Cup and Awesome Again among other dirt races and was beaten favorite in both the 2019 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Faber is the first foal out of Disobedient to race, and she was a winner on both dirt and turf in just 4 career starts for Brad Cox.

Razor-sharp debut winner Runaway Again was thrown to the King’s Plate wolves in his second start and never fired after some initial trouble. He’s by versatile sire Hard Spun, yet another Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up in the immediate pedigree lines in this race. Hard Spun won the Lecomte and King’s Bishop on dirt and was second-third-fourth in the 2007 US Triple Crown series. According to Betmix, Hard Spun has a strong 30: 7-9-5 record at Fort Erie with his offspring on dirt (23% wins, 53% exacta), including 2017 Prince of Wales fourth-place finisher All On Red. The damside of the pedigree lacks dirt influences.

Scorching, fourth in the King’s Plate, has never run on dirt. His sire Mo Town won the Remsen on dirt as a juvenile but got a signature turf score at 3 in the 2017 Hollywood Derby. His offspring have been a mix of turf and dirt successes, the sharp sprint mare Mystic Lake a millionaire on dirt. Mo Town has a single starter on dirt at Fort Erie, a claimer who won 2 of 5 local tries. Dam Samsal won twice on dirt at Finger Lakes in claiming company, but hasn’t produced much with experience on dirt. Samsal is half-sister to solid turf mare Stormy Rush.

King’s Plate last-place finisher Ashley’s Archer is half-brother to 2014 Prince of Wales winner Coltimus Prime, who bounced back from a Queen’s Plate ninth on the former Woodbine synthetic. Ashley’s Archer is by 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile and French Two Thousand Guineas winner Karakontie, a turf specialist. Karakontie is best known at stud for star turf mares She Feels Pretty, Spenderella and Princess Grace. His son Sole Volante transferred to dirt in 2020 and won the Sam F. Davis and finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby. This Mark Casse trainee also took well to the Tampa surface, finishing second on the dirt there in a March allowance sprint as the favorite.

Humber River makes his stakes and dirt debut fresh off an allowance win on Woodbine’s Tapeta. Sire Frac Daddy was second on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club at 2 and the Arkansas Derby at 3 before being trounced in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. He found more success on synthetic and turf later in his career. He’s been modest at stud with Owlette perhaps his best offspring as a synthetic specialist. Frac Daddy has had a slew of Fort Erie dirt entrants, winning nearly 17% from 130-plus starters (including 3 separate FE stakes-placed 2024 performers). Dam Miss Sea never raced on dirt and her only other foal finished third and fourth in a pair of dirt claimers at Fort Erie in 2024.

Dewolf rounds out the lineup and tries dirt for the first time in his 10th start. The son of Silent Name split the King’s Plate field in fifth. His mama Holy Cargo is half-sister to 2000 Preakness winner Red Bullet, but she finished off the board in a pair of Laurel dirt bids in her racing career. The damside of the pedigree has been non-descript, but a half-brother did win a pair of claiming races on the Fort Erie dirt in 2024. Sire Silent Name was a turf and synthetic performer and two-time Breeders’ Cup Mile alum on grass. He’s had a prolific number of Canadian starters, including more than 300 on dirt at Fort Erie, winning at 10% and 22% in the exacta.

Bottom Line:

I'd give Runaway Again a chance to bounce back from a disappointing Plate. His debut was too good to slough off and the Hard Spun pedigree influence has played strong at Fort Erie. Mansetti remains the horse to beat even on the surface change, while Ashley's Archer might be a sneaky inclusion to move up on the switch to Fort Erie. That's my top-3 in order.