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Scott Shapiro: Churchill Opening Day Spot Plays | Thursday, September 11, 2025

by Scott Shapiro

September 10, 2025

Racing returns to the home of the Kentucky Derby on Thursday for a short 14-day September meet before the circuit heads east to Keeneland for their popular fall meeting. As has become the tradition, a twilight Thursday card gets things rolling in Louisville for the first time since spring with a 5 pm ET start. Here are a few horses I plan to build my wagering around to kick off the stand.

Race 5:

The lone turf race on the Thursday agenda attracted a full field of second-level allowance foes led by morning line favorites #8 Depiction and #1 Money Supply. These two have taken on better in their career and have the ability to come with strong late runs when they are at their best, but are not for me at their likely off odds. Instead, I will hope to spring the upset with #10 Theismann. Things have not gone as planned for the $1.15M Keeneland September 2021 purchase, but he appears to have found a home on the grass. The Quality Road gelding was up against it from a trip and race shape perspective in his sprint effort over this turf course on June 11, but put things together in his first attempt going two-turns on the sod at Ellis on August 2. Hopefully, the Peter Eurton trainee can make it two straight with jockey Luis Saez taking the call for the first time.

Play: #10 Theismann (12-1 ML)


Race 6:
Trainer Al Stall Jr. did not take many horses to Saratoga this summer, but had solid success with the ones he deemed worthy of making the voyage to upstate New York. #4 Solemn Vow is one of those that competed at Saratoga and did so against the typical live group of MSW foes entered in their 2YO races. The Constitution filly lacked speed from the gate in her August 2 debut, but made a middle move before tiring late in a race that saw the first and third place finishers come from well off the early pace. Stall apparently means business in this gal’s second career start legging up Tyler Gaffalione. I would be surprised if she does not take a big step forward in her first start under the twin spires.

Play: #4 Solemn Vow (4-1 ML)


Race 7:
My final spot play of the day comes in this $141k allowance event at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where there is not much early speed signed on. I expect either #1 Jersey Pearl or #2 Easy Red to be aggressively ridden out of the gate assuming good breaks, which should allow Tyler Gaffalione to find a perfect stalking position with #3 Marmalade Skye. The daughter of Danza has been freshened up by trainer David Jacobson after a pair of wins against lesser over this surface in the spring. In her most recent effort versus second-level allowance foes in late May, Marmalade Skye worked out a very similar trip to the one I expect her to on Thursday evening. Hopefully, it is good enough to make it three straight for the Kentucky-bred that has been a new horse since moving into the Jacobson barn late last year.

Play: #3 Marmalade Skye (9-2 ML)

Best of luck!