The Lead:
The sophomore class of 2025 has been Sovereignty, Journalism and everybody else to this point. In their absence, Saturday's Pennsylvania Derby has Grade 1 clout and money ($1 million), but falls short of any championship implications. Regardless, horses placed in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Haskell and Travers all are among the 10-pack of participants. The 1-1/8 miles PA Derby will be Race 14 of 15 on a card that co-features the Grade 1 Cotillion and Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer.

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​Field Depth:
All seek an initial Grade 1 victory, but Grade 1-placed runners include MAGNITUDE (Grade 2 winner), GOSGER (Grade 3 winner), MO PLEX (Grade 3 winner), BAEZA, GOAL ORIENTED and BIG TRUZZ. In terms of strongest company lines over time, BAEZA has faced the toughest foes with GOSGER likely next-best.
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Pace:
Lots of pace in this one, from leading contenders to some of the longest shots on the tote. Expect a fast, competitive tempo that should flatter a solid finisher if he fires a strong effort. ALTOBELLI and MAGNITUDE from the inside and widest-drawn MO PLEX figure to be in the first flight with several nipping at their heels.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-SO SANDY: Vastly improved this summer for an always-dangerous Cherie DeVaux barn, but he's benefitted from modest paces and competition in recent starts. Speed jockey Kendrick Carmouche may be stuck in chase mode against these, and there's a big step forward needed to win. Sire Omaha Beach gets a fantastic 28% winners at Parx.

#2-ALTOBELLI: Cheap sprint speed can't be expected to do much more than contribute to the opening half-mile tempo. That could be telling to the end result, but this Delaware-based runner shows no indications of being a part of the conversation in the lane.

#3-MAGNITUDE: Speedster who wired the Risen Star and Iowa Derby wasn't able to maintain that over 10 furlongs in the Travers when fading to a distant third. Shorter trip and easier competition than Sovereignty conspire to improve his chances. Works indicate he came out of the Travers well for a Steve Asmussen barn whose Parx raids have included 4 victories in the Grade 1 Cotillion. Sire Not This Time has solid numbers over the Parx track with his offspring, which include local marathon dirt star Next's graded stakes success. Pace heat makes his chore less clear.

#4-DAVID OF ATHENS: Interesting travel partner to the more accomplished Brendan Walsh stablemate Gosger, he's the most lightly raced PA Derby prospect making only his fourth lifetime start. His last allowance win at Ellis Park was really good from the elbow start for the mile trip, so Saturday marks his first true, 2-turn race and adds another furlong to the odometer. Showed class in his debut at Keeneland last fall when outrunning eventual Grade 1 winner Patch Adams among others. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione jumps off of Big Truzz to ride this one. Walsh's last 12 starters at Parx include 6 exacta finishes in stakes company. Some intrigue.

#5-HAPPILY DELUSIONAL: The 1-for-11 local for Louis Linder hasn't finished better than fourth in 4 career stakes tries, and none of those were against this kind of competition. He is consistent to his credit and has some finishing ability that should keep him out of the basement. Best efforts have been with Lasix, which will not be in play Saturday. Jockey Paco Lopez has a national reputation, but absolutely is a local stalwart at Parx.

#6-GOAL ORIENTED: Preakness fourth and Haskell third-place finisher was an April debut artist and Kentucky Derby Day allowance winner who arrived late to the party. Bob Baffert's sophomores have disappointed this year, but Citizen Bull did get back on the beam to win at Del Mar this summer when dropped in class. Avoiding the cream of this year's 3YO crop helps Goal Oriented here as well as the others. Baffert shipped Bayern, McKinzie, West Coast and Taiba here to find past PA Derby success. Capable of sitting a good trip here and should have no excuses, while his BRIS late pace figures are good, but not great. That keeps him around the hunt at least. Irad Ortiz Jr. (26% on Parx dirt) takes over for Flavien Prat, who rides Saturday at Aqueduct after a Friday road trip to Presque Isle Downs for the Masters.

#7-BIG TRUZZ: Ellis Derby winner was flashy last out under Tyler Gaffalione, who jumps to ride David of Athens on Saturday. There's a glaring 1 bad start in his career in the Indiana Derby, which was his only true, 2-turn race and only race beyond a mile. Pedigree says distance won't be a problem, so there's more to the Indiana Derby dud than just distance when he never looked comfortable. Parx can be a funky track many don't handle, too, but at least know sire Justify's offspring are a strong 10: 3-1-2 over the local dirt surface in limited appearances. Trainer Brian Lynch has an excellent mark with Parx shippers, landing 10 of 19 in the exacta locally. Mixed vibes, but this is a very talented horse, not dependent on pace and will be taken over by Hall of Famer Javier Castellano for the first time.

#8-BAEZA: The Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes third-place finisher gave divisional kingpin Sovereignty a solid fight in the JIm Dandy at Saratoga on July 26, coming up a length short. He'll be a deserving favorite and likely goes under the 2-1 morning line price. The race conditions stack just 120 pounds on the John Shirreffs trainee, almost mockingly while getting a 4-pound break against some of his rivals and 2 pounds from others. Race tempo figures to be fast and benefit his finishing style; Baeza's BRIS late pace figures far outshine the competition on Saturday. Son of 2018 PA Derby winner McKinzie, who's limited offspring to race on the Parx dirt are a solid 6: 2-1-1 so far. First Parx appearance for jockey Hector Berrios. The horse to beat.

#9-GOSGER: What a difference a few strides make when you consider the Preakness and Haskell runner-up. Journalism's dogged determination nailed him late in both of those races and figuratively he'll be happiest in the field to not see that one in the starting gate. With 5 starts and 5 top-2 finishes, expect to see another prime effort. As mentioned, trainer Brendan Walsh's last 12 Parx starters include 6 exacta finishes in dirt stakes. Gosger breaks next to the favorite, Baeza, and the pair project to have similar running styles Saturday maybe 5-6 lengths off the contested pace. You can envision veteran Luis Saez gluing Gosger on the hip of Baeza and moving in tandem. But Gosger must give 4 pounds to Baeza and that rival has run 4 BRIS Late Pace Figures that are all higher than Gosger's lifetime best. If they both fire, Gosger may be second-best.

#10-MO PLEX: Outside speed likely will hustle from the gate and clear the face of several of these into the clubhouse turn. Set the pace in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga before tiring to fourth over this same distance vs. Baeza et al, but did win the Ohio Derby against lesser at this 1-1/8 miles trip. Jockey Joe Ramos has been second-leading rider at Horseshoe Indianapolis this season and reunites with his Ohio Derby-winning mount in the PA Derby. Horse and rider will be making their Parx debuts. Difficult to see him not getting hung wide on the first turn without being over-used to save ground, making his late-race forecast less promising for an obviously talented sort.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
BAEZA has been in the money in 6 straight and gets the race set-up in his finishing favor.

Best Longshot Contender:
The logical contenders probably have a hold on the exotics, but HIGHLY DELUSIONAL can pass tired horses with local experience over the track at a huge number for the bottom of a superfecta perhaps.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$65 exacta BAEZA over GOSGER; $35 exacta BAEZA over BIG TRUZZ.