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Al Cimaglia: Jug Day Late Pick 4 Analysis | Thursday, September 18, 2025

by Al Cimaglia

September 18, 2025

The Little Brown Jug will be decided in the finale of the 20 race Delaware County Fairgrounds card, with an approximate post time of 6:32 PM EDT. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 16. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Xpressbet/1st Bet account holders don't forget to register for the 10X 1/ST Rewards Points for All WAGERS on the Jug Day card at the Delaware County Fairgrounds.

Race 16 (4:56 PM EDT)

6-Prince Hal Hanover (3-1)-This is not an endorsement of the 3-year-old winning the Jug, although it certainly could happen. But, picking a winning sequence involves making sure the ticket is profitable if it connects. Louprint will be the chalk, and starting inside of Prince Hal helps his chances of getting the lead. Ron Burke has indicated they will be out and rolling. My choice will be to use Prince Hal with the hope he leaves faster and is able to win this Elim. That way the ticket has a better chance to be profitable. When they both met in the Adios, the Prince was more determined in the opening 3/8's and did get on the point. If that happens again Todd McCarthy might be able to hold on for the win, at least in the first encounter today. Not going to use both small prices, and this is a way to squeeze a bit more value out of the payout. If my thinking plays out, it will also set up an even more interesting Jug Final.

Race 17 (5:18 PM EDT)

4-Odds On Outlier (5/2)-Dexter Dunn has steered twice in the last 4 races and has taken a picture both times. The Melanie Wrenn trainee will be at the top of the stack or in the pocket throughout. Looks like a major player at a short price.
5-Captain Optimistic (7/2)-The Nancy Takter pupil might be overlooked here, which sounds odd to say. But this is a big track horse, at least until now, who has a 148.1 mark at M1 as a 3-year-old. Will hope the morning line price is too low and for this speedy colt to not have an issue with the turns.
6-Snack Attack (7/2)-Winner of 3 in the last 4 should be primed for this challenge. The Joe B trainee has good early speed but could also stalk and roll by late. Jason Bartlett, Yonkers leading driver, is a master on a half-mile oval. When he combines with the Joe B barn they post 41% winners.

Race 18 (5:43 PM EDT)

2-M-M's Dream (4-1)-The Ron Burke veteran mare is in sharp form. Raced huge 2 back in the Steele at M1 on 8-2. Put in a new mark of 149.4 and finished it off with a 26.3 last panel. Came a close 2nd after trying to go gate to wire in last. Lost to Elista Hanover (8) by a neck but that was following 27 days off.
4-Bravo Angel S (7/2)-This mare wired the last field, this will be a bigger test, and it is the 2nd time using hopples. Did good work at Yonkers and should offer a square price.
5-Nelsonbriteagle No (6-1)-Drew off by >9 lengths on 9-19-24 at Delaware and won the Ms Versatility. Has had issues this year and is 0-6. This is 2nd time Lasix, raced better in last, could offer value and Dexter Dunn sticks.

Race 19 (6:05 PM EDT)

1-Ana Loves Bananas (9/2)-The Scott Betts filly with Aaron Merriman between the pipes knows how to get the job done on a 1/2 mile oval, and should offer a solid price. Has a pilot aboard that will look to protect the rail and be forwardly placed throughout.
3-Rylee Too (5/2)-Has hit the board in 9 of 11 starts and took 2 pictures with most of her work being done at Scioto. Has had trouble lately sealing the deal on a 5/8's oval but the return to a 1/2-mile track could make the winning difference. Raced big at Nfld on 8/17 to finish a close 2nd that night leaving from post 3 and should be a main player here.

$1 Late Pick 4

6/4,5,6/2,4,5/1,3
Total Bet=$18

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