Well, I’ve blanked the first few cards in Hong Kong, so it can only go up from here, right? Let’s hope so! I went back to the drawing board on my model to make sure it wasn’t relying too heavily on things that aren’t as predictable as other factors. After careful review, and a trimming down of factors, I’ve settled somewhere that is producing much better results when back tested and relies less on pace figures that are difficult to reproduce. Let’s hope I didn’t treat it like a bad fantasy football team after a bad start and tinker with it too much just yet.

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – September 21

HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather


Race 1 | 1800M | Class 5
Win – #2 GOLDEN FAIRY
Quinella – 2 w/ 1,3,4
Grade: A

Notes: They say pace makes the race, right? Right! I believe my top choice is more than capable of going gate-to-wire from the inside post and pulling the upset to open the card. Two races back, this seven-year-old fired and led easily to a win at 2000 meters. The only other real pace concern is HAKKA RADIANCE who beat GOLDEN FAIRY to the first-call lead by a nose before they both faded. HAKKA RADIANCE and GOLDEN FAIRY both pick up new mounts here, with GOLDEN FAIRY getting Hewitson back up who rode him to victory two races back. HAKKA RADIANCE is going to have to fire from the eighth post and go around for a lead this time, and I’m planning on it being too much for him which should set up GOLDEN FAIRY with a smooth lead he can ride out for all nine furlongs.


Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Win – #1 CHARMING STEED
Exacta – 1,3 w/ 1,3,9
Grade: B

Notes: Finally, some good ol’ fashioned all-weather surface racing. CHARMING STEED has the best recent record on this surface of the field winning three of eleven starts and finishing in the money in six of them. PRECISION GOAL also boasts a strong all-weather surface record, but looks like he’ll end up on the lead here which has not too well for him. I think he’ll have some pressure in this race from a better contender, CHARMING STEED, and I like my top choice to eventually make a move and find the wire first. Alongside CHARMING STEED, ALLCASH is dropping to Class 4 and picking up Zac Purton. That’s a dangerous combination to add to his noteworthy speed figures of late. PRECISION GOAL is still a worthy contender, but I’ll play him in the second spot of my exacta and go for a big price to win.


Race 5 | 1600M | Class 4
Win - #11 SPECIAL HEDGE
Grade: A

Notes: My model points towards SPECIAL HEDGE to find his first win going a mile at a lovely Morning Line of 11/1. Fitting, no? Horses projected as highly as this one does win roughly 72% of their races in my model’s testing. It might be tough to parse out on paper, but I’m going to trust my numbers on this one and take a swing on a Win bet. This jockey has ridden him to his best two starts out of the last five, and hopefully this is the time he figures out the trip from the second post to cash us a ticket.


Race 7 | 1400M | Class 4
Quinella – 5 w/ 4,7
Grade: C

Notes: I’m taking a shot at a big price finding a way to finish in the top-two and pairing him with the two most logical contenders in the race. ALL ROUND WINNER has been nothing of the sort, going 0-for-6 to start his Hong Kong career, but I’m playing a mix of raw speed figures and pace setup hoping things fall apart on the lead and make way for a late burst of speed. Not to mention, this horse has now had six starts and an offseason in Hong Kong and hopefully has acclimated to his surroundings ahead of his season debut. If we can get some pressure near the lead, we have a good chance of ALL ROUND WINNER crashing the board close to the Morning Line of 54/1 and making our Quinella a standout in the Xpressbet account history.


Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3 (All-Weather)
Win - #3 ARIEL
Quinella Box – 1,3,6
Grade: A

Notes: Britney Wong has had a strong start to the season, and I’m banking on her continuing to find success in this Class 3 bout on the all-weather track. They have her gelding, ARIEL, tabbed at 21/1 on the Morning Line, but I think that’s a huge underestimation. This seven-year-old has won three of eight starts on the all-weather track, including two races back on a sealed wet course where he snagged the lead at the second call and rode on to win under Wong. Also in the category of likely misprices is TURIN MASCOT, a son of CARVAGGIO that may not have the best record on the surface, but has run against a tougher crop in his last five starts. I like ARIEL most in the field, and will play to win, but a pair of other Morning Line prices have my eye and I’m willing to lay a few bucks on some combination of them to find the wire ahead of the rest of the field.


Race 10 | 1200M | Class 3
Quinella – 2 w/ 1,3
Grade: A

Notes: Running back a strategy of price with two favorites in the Quinella, I like NEW FUTURE FOLKS cutting back in distance here and think he has a legitimate shot at pulling the upset. My hesitation with an outright win play is some potential early pace from HAYDAY or LO PAN SPIRIT who could both end up wearing down NEW FUTURE FOLKS. If Teetan can find a way to navigate the race’s setup, I am confident that my 26/1 Morning Line top choice can make some noise. STORM RIDER will be guided by the ever-talented Zac Purton in this class drop, and should be sitting off the pace by a couple lengths before a big push down the stretch. LUCKY MY WAY is 2-for-4 in his young Hong Kong career and is getting the call up to Class 3. There’s still much to be seen from this gelding against a tougher field, but if he looks anything like he did at the end of last season he could be a serious contender as well.

Good luck!