The Lead:
The Great Race Place flies from the gate Saturday with five important stakes races, none more so than the Grade 1 Goodwood. The potential Breeders' Cup Classic / Dirt Mile prep will be Race 9 of 10 and part of the all-new Sunset 6 wager that includes the final 3 races daily at both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to take advantage of the Bet $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on Saturday at Santa Anita.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners FULL SERRANO, EXPRESS TRAIN, and GAMING are joined by Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed FIRST MISSION. On strength of schedule, EXPRESS TRAIN and FIRST MISSION have kept the strongest company lines over an extended period.
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Pace:
FULL SERRANO has made the lead at some point in all 4 domestic starts, while stablemates GAMING, PRIVMAN and NEVADA BEACH likely won't let him get loose. FIRST MISSION and ULTIMATE GAMBLE also prefer to be in striking distance. The pace should be hot for 9 furlongs.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-GAMING: Sophomores get a 4-6 pound weight break on elders here, and this 2024 Del Mar Futurity winner has been up and down since that signature score. Wired fellow 3YOs in the Affirmed June 8 in only local try, but only a trio of rivals that day and was last of just a 3-horse field in the Shared Belief most recently at Del Mar. Distance and pace scenario don't help his cause.

#2-ULTIMATE GAMBLE: Nabbed third in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 71-1 odds last time when making his stakes debut in lifetime start #10. Has shown mild, but steady improvement and could have more ability to relax in this race than some of the others. Hard to see on top, but perhaps a share.

#3-PRIVMAN: Big step in class for the second of 3 Bob Baffert trainees, who makes his stakes debut in start #6. Cautiously maneuvered in maiden spots before winning back-to-back races at Del Mar this summer. Justify colt has yet to try Santa Anita or a race beyond 1 mile. Antonio Fresu won the Hollywood Meet title locally this year for his first SA crown. Not in a hurry to embrace but can't flippantly toss.

#4-FIRST MISSION: Morning line favorite comes west for the first time for trainer Brad Cox. April's Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap winner comes off a baffling loss at 1-5 odds on the class drop in Monmouth's Grade 3 Iselin. His best certainly is good enough to win this, but reliance on that is far from certain. Optimum distance likely 1-1/16 miles, but has 2 graded wins at this trip at Oaklawn. Mixed vibes and likely underlay price.

#5-NEVADA BEACH: Third Baffert charge beat nothing of consequence in the Los Al Derby and was second to barnmate Gaming as the chalk in the Affirmed. Pedigree doesn't scream 9F against stout competition. Kyle Frey rarely rides for the barn as this colt loses pilot Juan Hernandez to Full Serrano. Will make him beat me.

#6-EXPRESS TRAIN: The 8-year-old doesn't have as much tread on the tires as his age suggests, running 27 times with about 3-5 starts per season. Poorly timed ride in the San Diego soiled his 2025 form, but thoughts that he was going sour were washed away when he was able to sprint within a length of Dr. Venkman in the Pat O'Brien. In a field loaded with speed, he'll get every chance to let his true route form shine from off the pace. Yes, March of 2022 was a long time ago since his last victory, but I like his chances to make some noise Saturday.

#7-FULL SERRANO: The 2024 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner strictly is the horse to beat off a romping allowance return win at Del Mar. The Argentine export has been nearly flawless in 4 domestic starts and his Pacific Classic and South American form indicate the 9 furlongs here is within his scope. The amount of pace competition in the race opens the door some, but he's clearly the most likely of the speed horses to sustain late. First trip at Santa Anita in the afternoon, and while he worked fast Sept. 21 locally, he was asked to do so (for that that's worth).

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
EXPRESS TRAIN is 15-16 in the superfecta at Santa Anita lifetime and gets a great pace set-up to make an impact.

Best Longshot Contender:
ULTIMATE GAMBLE could stay out of the pace fray and pass tired runners for a share like his Pacific Classic surprise third at huge odds.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta FULL SERRANO over EXPRESS TRAIN. $10 exacta EXPRESS TRAIN over FULL SERRANO. $10 exacta box EXPRESS TRAIN and FIRST MISSION ($20). $30 win EXPRESS TRAIN.