This Saturday’s card at Keeneland is not the stakes-laden card we saw a week ago, but it is still one very well worth attacking. As always, the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) is the traditional second Saturday of the fall meet feature. The prestigious 1 1/8-mile race over the grass for 3YO fillies drew a solid group and is a significant race within a challenging Pick 5 sequence, as well as the final leg of the player friendly $3 All-Turf Pick 3. Here are a few horses I will personally be leaning on in Lexington on Saturday afternoon.


Race 7:

This first-level allowance at 1 3/16-miles over the Keeneland lawn drew an oversubscribed field with a lukewarm 4-1-ML favorite.. The well-bred #3 Valentinian will likely take some public support trying the grass for the initial time, as well Godolphin’s #6 Chapman’s Peak. The son of Quality Road broke his maiden going even longer than this last out at Kentucky Downs against a group that I thought was subpar, but perhaps I was wrong. The second and third place finishers came back to run 1-2 on Wednesday afternoon. That said, I like #7 Warlander most. Admittedly, I am already down money on this son of Kitten’s Joy, but he has tackled better than this group throughout his 8-race career. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen added blinkers last out and it led to a strong runner-up effort despite being caught wide on a day where the inside was the place to be. The Winchell Thoroughbreds runner finds he field he should handle at what should be a playable price with Jose Ortiz back aboard.

Play: #7 Warlander (6-1 ML)


Race 9: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

The aforementioned feature event drew a field of 9 led by undefeated ML favorite #2 Laurelin. The Newstead Stables filly comes in off a career best effort in the Saratoga Oaks (G2) when she was three-wide into the lane, but much the best nonetheless. It is difficult to knock the Graham Motion runner, but this is easily the toughest group she has encountered thus far, so I will seek a bit of a bigger price. Trainer Brendan Walsh is off to a white-hot start to the Keeneland fall meet and has a big chance to earn his first QE II Challenge Cup victory with #1 Lush Lips. The daughter of Ten Sovereigns struggled with professionalism early in the year, but has clearly turned a corner mentally. Her win two-back in the Tepin was a big one because she proved she could relax and settle early in races. She was unable to make it two in a row on the ship out west for the Del Mar Oaks (G1), but ran a solid second to a horse that got a great trip up the inside. She has been given nearly two months since the voyage to Southern California, draws the inside, and appears poised for a career best effort on Saturday afternoon. Hopefully, it is good enough to get the money.

Play: #1 Lush Lips (5-1 ML)


Race 10:

The card concludes with this starter allowance event at 6-1/2 furlongs over the main track where the pace should be contentious. I am hopeful that sets things up for #8 Pineland. The Collected gelding has not lived up to expectations thus far, but finds a spot where he should outrun his odds. The Shortleaf Stables runner has competed over the lawn in his last three starts, including a pair of underneath efforts in one-mile turf races on this circuit this summer. He ran fine in those races on the grass, but I prefer him on the dirt where he should get a good setup on the surface switch. Hopefully, he can settle mid-pack early and come with a strong run late at a good price for a barn that is better than some of their statistics suggest.

Play: #8 Pineland (10-1 ML)