As we prep for a huge weekend for Hong Kong racing, we’ve got a nice appetizer Wednesday morning at Happy Valley. And just like the Happy Valley in our corner of the globe, we’re going to be doing some firing. Unlike our Happy Valley, however, we’re looking to walk away with plenty of Franklins rather than just losing the one.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – October 15
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather 

Race 2 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – #1 SAMARKAND
Grade: B

Notes: This plays more against the Morning Line favorite, NORTHERN BEAST, than it is a ringing endorsement of SAMARKAND. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of early pace in this race, and I think that sets up a bit better for SAMARKAND who tends to run his best when he can hang a length or so off the lead. NORTHERN BEAST draws the rail here, and will have to spend some of his effort early to fight off early contenders for his own preferred spot of a couple lengths off a front-runner. The race feels like it could eat up NORTHERN BEAST by the time they hit the final stretch, and I think SAMARKAND will love cutting back to just over a mile from his nine-furlong try last out. At 5/1 on the Morning Line, I like SAMARKAND to get home at a playable price.

Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 3,5,12
Grade: B

Notes: The third race on the card is a bout between a lot of lightly raced runners in Hong Kong. A few of these newbies jump out with some impressive first runs and Morning Line prices that feel fair given their resumes, but may be under-selling their efforts. ARGENTO OCEAN and TELECOM POWER are both strong contenders according to my numbers. These two are more likely to take some money at the windows than some of the others, but I think they are deserving of that investment. One of the two will likely be at the top of the tote board, but I like a price to sneak up there with them. PERIDOT has only run twice in Hong Kong, once where he looked like a rookie and the other over a yielding track that didn’t bode well for him. He moves from Sha Tin to Happy Valley, and I think a good condition on the track and change of scenery might be enough to make his raw speed figures show up in the past performances. Let’s box these three in the Quinella and hope they run their best races.


Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #3 TOURBILLON GOLFER
Grade: A

Notes: As much as I didn’t want to pick this horse so I wouldn’t have to spell TOURBILLON GOLFER repeatedly, my numbers paint this gelding as the clear standout in the field. He had two massive runs that came up just short at Sha Tin last season. He has his tune-up run in the books to start the new year. Zac Purton is back up for another try on this four-year-old. It’s hard to paint a bad picture, especially when the Morning Line favorite has run only twice at shorter distances and faded each time. The price is certainly not going to be huge here, but I think this is the race where Purton and Yiu figure out their strategy for an obviously talented runner and hit the wire first.

Good luck!