Twelve contenders and four alternates have drawn a spot in The Everest (G1) at Royal Randwick for Australia’s richest race on Friday night US-time. The headlines (this one included) have rightfully focused on the world’s top-rated sprinter, KA YING RISING, who ships in from Hong Kong to test his might. Michael Hawkes, co-trainer of local leading sprinter BRIASA, has sent his warning that this is not a “one-horse race” despite the global focus on KA YING RISING. Let’s look at the field and try to determine whether this is indeed a one-horse race, or if you’re better off taking a shot against in the AU $20 million bout.

#1 KA YING RISING *pictured* | J: Zac Purton | T: David Hayes
Record: 16-14-2-0

There isn’t much to say about the world’s top-rated sprinter that hasn’t been said before, but in making his first start outside of Hong Kong, this gelding is taking quite a big bite. To give some context to KA YING RISING’s resume, half of his victories are in group stakes company and a fourth of them came in Group 1 competition. He has two second-place finishes, one by a nose as a result of a bad jump out of the gate and the other by a quarter-length after an undesirable trip on the lead. Both of his losses came in January of 2024, and the champion has been undefeated ever since.

His works leading up to The Everest have been the subject of discussion after finishing third in his trial run. However, he worked easily and was never really asked for much, and David Hayes has insisted his training has him peaking at the perfect time. His tune-up race in Hong Kong was as effortless as his works on the grounds in Australia and he looks primed for another championship run. The competition will be stiff, but the homecoming for Zac Purton appears to be in the hands of the racing Gods as all signs point to KA YING RISING being healthy, in form, and capable of his best.

#2 BRIASA | J: Tyler Schiller | T: Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes
Record: 12-8-1-0

BRIASA comes into the race at the peak of his career output having won two of his last five runs, including Group 1 and Group 2 stakes victories. He tried stretching out to seven furlongs in April but didn’t have the final push at the 50-meter mark to hang onto his lead. On September 20, BRIASA came up short in a Group 2 at Randwick going five and one-half furlongs before coming back for a Group 2 win on October 4 at six. BRIASA appears to be the most highly rated local runner, but a splash of inconsistency against the best fields could be the deciding factor as he prepares for the toughest race of his career. He should try to run a similar race as KA YING RISING, but BRIASA has shown weakness down the stretch where others in this field have that extra gear to utilize the entire length of the race. This will be his most daunting task, and he’ll need to run the race of his life to make it to the wire first.

#3 OVERPASS | J: Joshua Parr | T: Bjorn Baker
Record: 32-10-6-0

The likely early speed of the field, OVERPASS has been in declining form over the course of the last calendar year. In November of 2024, this seven-year-old won the Group 1 Winterbottom at a fairly slow 1:09 over six furlongs. After taking time off until April of this year, OVERPASS has been winless in three official attempts finishing 2nd, 5th, and 9th. These races were against largely Group 1 competition, but the field doesn’t get any easier with BRIASA and KA YING RISING stalking him every step of the way. This gelding would need an easy lead and a crawling pace to take advantage of to win Australia’s richest race. Quite frankly, there isn’t much about this field that spells out an easy trip for the seven-year-old. If he digs back to his career best, he may have a puncher’s chance.

#4 JIMMYSSTAR | J: Ethan Brown | T: Ciaron Maher
Record: 20-9-4-2

If OVERPASS looks like opening speed, JIMMYSSTAR is the horse that will settle far off the pace and his bettors won’t be nervous as they wait for him to shift into gear late and roar down the stretch. He came up just short of BRIASA in the Group 2 Premiere at Randwick on October 4. His victory in the Group 1 All Aged came at seven furlongs on a soft track, but he looked much the best for the distance. The six-year-old revels in longer sprints, but if everybody is going all-out early he may have an opening to exploit late. Like the other highly-rated locals, JIMMYSSTAR is going to need to dig in to find the run of his life to take down KA YING RISING, but crazier things have happened in racing. His running style should benefit him in trying to take down BRIASA and KA YING RISING if they have to battle with OVERPASS for five furlongs, but his resume still lacks the consistency and quality of his main competitors.

#5 WAR MACHINE | J: Tim Clark | T: Ben, Will & JD Hayes
Record: 14-7-2-2

WAR MACHINE is taking a big step forward but has been on a tear lately winning four of his last five. Three of those victories came at seven furlongs, or close to it, and the most recent at the six-furlong distance he will run in The Everest (G1). For context, WAR MACHINE won at Flemington on a Good turf course at six furlongs with a time of 1:08.53. BRIASA finished in 1:07.98 in his Group 2 victory at Randwick in October. If you assume a sixth of a second is equal to a length, that puts BRIASA at about three lengths ahead of WAR MACHINE. This runner will be settling off the pace along with JIMMYSSTAR, but the on-paper times he runs make me hesitant to think he’ll be able to clear this field at six furlongs. WAR MACHINE seems to really excel in the final furlong of his seven-furlong victories, but he just won’t have that much track to run this weekend.

#6 MAZU | J: Jason Collett | T: Joseph Pride
Record: 40-9-4-6

MAZU claimed his last victory in April of this year in the Group 3 Hall Mark, but has been somewhat underwhelming in his campaign since. Having run twice on slower conditions, he deserves some grace for his recent resume, but this runner is 9-5-1-1 on a Heavy turf course so he certainly likes the soft grass. The seven-year-old gelding just seems to be ready for some class relief after this to try to get back into winning form. It’s hard to say no to the opportunity this kind of purse brings, but on paper the bite seems to be too big for MAZU to chew. Expect him to try for an early lead alongside OVERPASS, but I think the distance and quality of his competition will chew him up before he can sniff the wire.

#7 JEDIBEEL | J: Kerrin McEvoy | T: Brad Widdup
Record: 24-8-7-1

7-1-2-1 at six furlongs, 8-2-2-0 at Randwick, and in declining form this year, JEDIBEEL doesn’t offer much to bettors on paper. In his last run against MAZU, JIMMYSSTAR and BRIASA, he was nowhere near threatening to find the wire first. The field here only gets tougher even with familiar foes. This distance just doesn’t suit him, and I think this six-year-old will be ready to get back to on-par competition as his campaign continues.

#8 ANGEL CAPITAL | J: Ben Melham | T: Chris Waller
Record: 9-5-0-0

As the record indicates, ANGEL CAPITAL is sort of the “all or nothing” horse. He’s either winning, or he’s completely off the board. With a pair of wins in listed stakes at six furlongs, he boasts a solid 3-2-0-0 at this distance, but this is no listed stakes. His times in those six-furlong runs are vastly slower than the regular times put up by his competition, and we have no evidence to say he can magically pick up a couple of seconds between races. If this horse wins, it’ll just have to be one that beats me.

#9 JOLIESTAR | J: James McDonald | Chris Waller
Record: 16-7-4-2

JOLIESTAR comes into this race with the rare line item on his resume of having not only beaten BRIASA but having won in impressive fashion. Outside of a ninth-place finish on April 5 in the Group 1 T J Smith, JOLIESTAR has been a menace to any field she has had the pleasure of running against. She ran second to JIMMYSSTAR in the Group 1 All Aged before coming back to roar past BRIASA in the Group 2 The Shorts. This five-year-old mare also has the benefit of a potential hot pace between the assumed favorites, and the breaks are set up to go her way if all things play out perfectly. This is not a mare you can count out easily.

#10 LADY SHENANDOAH | J: Damian Lane | T: Chris Waller
Record: 9-5-2-1

LADY SHENANDOAH will be glad to be back at Randwick where she boasts a 4-3-1-0 record, but none of those four runs have been The Everest (G1). Her times at six furlongs show a very beatable competition in nearly every try, and I do think losing James McDonald to JOLIESTAR does further hurt her chances at making a splash on the tote board. This mare wins races, there’s no doubt about that, but I do expect this race to shape up just a bit too tough for her. She has only run a third of her races at six furlongs, and the connections certainly prefer to set her up for longer distances than what she’ll run at Randwick this weekend.

#11 MAGIC TIME | J: Michael Dee | T: Grahame Begg
Record: 22-8-2-4

On paper, there isn’t much to say about MAGIC TIME other than she seems to be slowing down in her six-year-old campaign and this field is just too much for her. She wins half the races she runs at six furlongs, but in her last five races she has won only once in a Group 3 stakes race running six furlongs in 1:10.01. In other words, she got a win but her Group 3 foes were nowhere near what she’ll see at Randwick. Unfortunately, she feels like an easy toss for handicappers.

#12 TEMPTED | J: Craig Williams | T: Ciaron Maher
Record: 8-4-1-2

The lone Godolphin runner in this field, TEMPTED also bears the burden of being a three-year-old against some of the toughest older horses in the hemisphere. This daughter of Street Boss certainly has the connections and pedigree to catch the eye of handicappers, but I think she’s taking a huge step forward in a spot that may end up being a blemish on an otherwise successful resume. She’ll need to improve drastically here to be considered a contender.

Race Forecast

Top Choice: #1 KA YING RISING
Upset Alert: #4 JIMMYSSTAR & #9 JOLIESTAR

OVERPASS and MAZU should both try for an early lead, and I expect the two to do battle upfront with KA YING RISING and BRIASA just off the pace. Settling back will be JIMMYSSTAR and JOLIESTAR waiting to see how the field shapes up and where the gaps may lie as they head towards home. I think the pace and pressure of such a big race will be too much for BRIASA who will start to tread water while KA YING RISING makes his late move and starts pushing past slowing contenders. From somewhere far off the pace, JIMMYSSTAR and JOLIESTAR will start looking for a lane and passing by tiring rivals. I expect KA YING RISING to be just a touch too much, but don’t be shocked if one of the late closers gets set up to slingshot home winning by a nose.

Predicted Top Four

#1 KA YING RISING
#9 JOLIESTAR
#4 JIMMYSSTAR
#2 BRIASA

How I’ll Play It

Win: 4 or 9 (depending on who has the higher odds at post time)
Exacta: 1 w/ 4,9
Trifecta: 1 w/ 4,9 w/ 4,9
Superfecta: 1 w/ 4,9 w/ 4,9 w/ 2