Let’s start the weekend with a winner. Here’s my take on the Late Pick 4 at Santa Anita on Friday, which kicks off with Race 6, at 6:33PM ET.

Race 6 (6:33PM ET)- $50K Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs (Turf)

The sequence kicks off with maiden fillies and mares going six furlongs on the turf and I’m taking a stand against the 9/5 morning line favorite, #2 Frog. This filly has lost four consecutive races at this level and always concedes ground down the lane in races. Sure, she ‘can’ win, but she’s not a good favorite. I’ll go deeper here to try to beat her. My top pick is #6 PAARL (5/1) in a ‘second off the layoff’ move for John Sadler and dropping for a tag for the first time. She was a victim of a crowded break in a Del Mar MSW sprint last out and she did have to pull out of her spot. Did it cost her the win? No. But did it cost her a length? Maybe. This is a better spot for her. This is a good leg to find our price horse, so we’ll take advantage and also use a handful of others.

Use Horses: #3 STORMY ROUGE (12/1), #4 MOLLY JENSEN (8/1), #6 PAARL (5/1), #7 WITHOUT A POUT (4/1), #9 (AE) EXPRESSIVE LOVE (8/1)


Race 7 (7:03PM ET) - $20K Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs

In state-bred maiden claiming races, I generally look for two things right off the bat. 1) Horses dropping in class from Maiden Special Weight races and 2) Horses dropping in class from open company races. This is a big field, but not much luck in either area. A few horses, like #1 She’s Back (8/1) and #8 Southern Anton (9/2) are in Southern California after debuting at Emerald Downs in Washington. So not exactly an ‘apples-to-apples’ class drop and not really the one I’m looking for. #12 REMEMBER APRIL (5/1) does drop in from a pair of Del Mar turf MSW races, and #14 CHICA TIGRE (8/1) was running for a $50K tag during that same Del Mar meet. #5 PRISCILLA (6/1) is another MSW class dropper, and appears to be the likeliest winner. Note that #2 STRONG MORALS was bet down to even-money in her Del Mar debut at this level and flashed a ton of speed before dropping out.

Use Horses: #2 STRONG MORALS (15/1), #5 PRISCILLA (6/1), #6 SHEER LIGHTNING (6/1), #13 REMEMBER APRIL (5/1), #14 CHICA TIGRE (8/1)


Race 8 (7:33PM ET) - $40K Claiming – 1 Mile (Turf)

We’re deep-by-deep to start the ticket, but I think the eighth race is a two-horse event. Juan Hernandez, Southern California’s leading rider, could have probably ridden a few of these but takes the call on Mark Rheinford’s #4 CAISSON (4/1). Hernandez and Rheinford don’t have a history and this horse has slowly improved all year. The distance is a big concern – he’s just 3-for-16 going a mile – and his deep-closing style probably isn’t perfect for this race, but plenty of favorable factors. #1 BEEF WINSLOW (9/5) finished behind CAISSON at Del Mar, but should use the rail to his advantage. The last two times he went a mile at Santa Anita, he won by open lengths and he appears to be sitting on another big effort. The wildcard is projected pacesetter #5 Crosby Beach. He has races in 2024 that would demolish this field, but his race off the pine at Del Mar was not good and it’s not an encouraging sign that Jeff Mullins, who claimed him for $50K off that effort, immediately drops him into a lighter spot with a $40K tag.

Use Horses: #1 BEEF WINSLOW (9/5), #4 CAISSON (4/1)


Race 9 (8:03PM ET) – $35K Maiden Optional Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs

Friday’s nightcap attracted 10 maidens – 6 of them first-time starters. Nobody is in for a claiming tag. In races like this I generally favor horses with some experience, especially if they were bet a little in prior start(s). #3 DEBBY’S GAL (5/2) is the favorite here and probably for good reason. She was bet to 12/1 in her debut last month at Los Alamitos, a race that also featured a 2/5 favorite for Michael McCarthy. She finished 3rd that day and picks up Juan Hernandez to ride. Of those who have started, she’s probably the one you want, along with #6 MIMI’S MEMORY (5/1). She went off at 9/1 at Del Mar and flashed speed before dropping out. This group is more to her liking. Let’s also give a look to first-time starter #7 TOKALA (8/1). He shows a pair of very fast gate drills in preparation for this debut and the Ryan Hanson / Adrian Escobedo combo have clicked at 15% over the last two years at Santa Anita, with a $2.67 ROI. Daughter of Yaupon sold for $100K at Keeneland last September for 4x the $25K stud fee and offspring of star sprinter Yaupon have been predictably proficient on debut.

Use Horses: #3 DEBBY’S GAL (5/2), #6 MIMI’S MEMORY (5/1), #7 TOKALA (8/1)


Pick 4 Ticket

Race 6: 3, 4, 6, 7 (add 9 if draws in)
Race 7: 2, 5, 6, 13, 14
Race 8: 1, 4
Race 9: 3, 6, 7

Ticket Cost: $60 for 50-cent play