A special All-Weather showcase is upon us at Sha Tin to warm things up ahead of the Breeders’ Cup action. Eight races are carded in Hong Kong with each one being run on the synthetic surface, which Hong Kong regulars will recognize is a stark departure from the turf-laden circuit’s standard programming. Let’s take a look at the day and see if we can find some strong contenders who will translate to the All-Weather surface.

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – October 30
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/information/english/Racing/RaceCard.aspx?RaceDate=2025/09/21&Racecourse=ST&RaceNo=1

Race 1 | 1600M | Class 5
Win – #4 COURIER MAGIC
Grade: B

Notes: The card opens with a Class 5 mile on the All-Weather surface, and I’m turning to a runner who is lightly raced on the synthetic course but who is coming into the race in solid form. COURIER MAGIC has been winless in his five and six-year-old seasons thus far, but showed a strong second-place run in his last outing and seems to be rounding into shape fit for these Class 5 races. In addition to his speed figures, what sells me on this runner is his sire’s output on the All-Weather course. SAVABEEL (AUS) has a 10.26% win rate all-time as a sire over the course with an average winning distance of just over seven furlongs. While those numbers may not jump off the screen, when compared to most of the sires in the nearly all-turf Hong Kong circuit it’s a sign of a horse decently bred to make the surface change. At just 4/1 on the Morning Line, we aren’t making our year with this one, but we could have a good chance at opening the day on a positive note.


Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #2 NEW POWER
Grade: A

Notes: While I’m already sick of the Christmas jingles and decorations taking over in October, NEW POWER at 11/1 feels like an early present from St. Nick himself. My power figures have this horse as the most highly-rated in the field by a relatively wide margin. This five-year-old gelding was sired by SWISS ACE (NZ) who has strong a 15.15% win rate on the synthetic course at an average distance of right about six furlongs. Britney Wong gets the mount and has shown some serious skill navigating her All-Weather races, plus she gets a five-pound handicap. With a price like this, I’m more than happy to base my day on this opinion.


Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #3 VULCANUS
Grade: B

Notes: Since finding his stride as a sprinter, VULCANUS has finished top-two in nineteen tries at six furlongs. In ten starts on the all-weather surface, he has finished top-two in half of his tries. His start to this season hasn’t been ideal, but he’s coming into this race in decent form having run some solid speed figures against tough competition. Switching back to the synthetic track, I like his chances at 15/2 on the Morning Line and think if he’s anything close to that at post time he’ll be worth a couple bucks to win.


Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 2,3,6,12
Grade: C

Notes: This race was hard to make heads or tails of, but sometimes that means we have an opportunity to bank on unpredictability and capture a huge price. My speed ratings have #2 PRESTIGE RICKY and #3 SEA CHARIOT as being woefully underrated by the oddsmakers in Hong Kong. At 26/1 and 52/1 respectively, I think either one has more than a puncher’s chance at crashing a top-two finish. By boxing two of the chalkier options alongside these longshots, we can take advantage of both the logical outcome and cover the potential for a month-making finish. Sometimes, when playing on numbers, you have to trust your process. This is a time where the art of making a bet meets the science of creating these speed figures, and I’m hoping things get as chaotic as possible for a massive boost to my Breeders’ Cup bankroll.
Good luck!