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Scott Shapiro: Breeders' Cup Saturday Exacta-Thon Plays

by Scott Shapiro

October 30, 2025

Yesterday I introduced this year’s $20,000 Exacta-Thon and discussed some plays on Future Stars Friday that hopefully could help me earn my share of the prize pool. Today, I will take a look at a few plays on Saturday’s slate that I plan to make a part of the six or more $2+ exactas I need to hit to win my share of that $10k. Remember, the goal is to connect on at least six $2 exactas to earn an equal share of $7500, while the player(s) who hit the most over the course of the full card split the other $2500 set aside for Saturday afternoon. I can’t wait, so let’s get to it.

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1)

This year’s Sprint drew a solid field led by last year’s runner-up #10 Bentornato. The son of Valiant Minister only competed in the afternoon once in 2025 and it came back in mid-September at Churchill Downs when he put on a clinic in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society winning by more than five lengths in the end. The Jose D’Angelo trainee merits serious respect, but so does a horse I like a touch more that is likely to be double his price.

#7 Imagination was not a horse I thought was super talented as a 3YO, but trainer Bob Baffert gave the Into Mischief colt eight months off after his fourth-place finish in the San Pasqual (G2) in late January and the Hall of Fame conditioner has been rewarded. His win, particularly the way he finished in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship last month, tells me Imagination has found his niche sprinting and is starting to live up to his $1.05M sales price at the Keeneland September 2022 sale. The fact he has competed well over this course in the past certainly does not hurt his chances. Juan Hernandez will be back aboard my top pick in this year’s Sprint.

Play: Exacta Wheel 7 with 3+10


Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1)

#8 Seismic Beauty was understandably made the 9-5-ML favorite in this year’s Breeders Cup’ Distaff off of a trio of easy wire-to-wire victories since stretching out to two-turns this spring for Bob Baffert. On the surface, she is the clear one to beat, but she certainly has had things her way of late, including last time out when she rode a good rail to victory in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1). Seismic Beauty may very well be quicker than this group early, but 9-furlongs combined with the strongest field she has encountered has me willing to fade the Maryland-bred daughter of Uncle Mo at her likely short price.

I like #1 Nitrogen most in this year’s Distaff. The Medaglia d’Oro filly was outstanding on turf and has been even faster since moving to the main track. The inside draw and her tactical speed should have her in a favorable position throughout after being caught three-wide most of the way in the Spinster (G1). #3 Clicquot is the other horse I plan to use on top. The 3YO takes on older runners for the first time and needs to get faster, but has improved in every race and might get a bit overlooked in the wagering. Hopefully she is good to me once again on Saturday afternoon as she draws favorably along the inside with Flavien Prat taking over riding duties for the first time.

Play: Exacta Wheel 1+3 with 1+3+12+13


Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)

Things changed big time yesterday in the biggest race of the weekend when trainer Bill Mott unfortunately had to scratch Sovereignty due to a fever. Losing the Godolphin colt is disappointing, but the silver lining is it opens the race up quite a bit from a wagering perspective. I was of the opinion that Sovereignty was in a tier of his own despite the depth of this year’s Classic field. Now, instead of singling the chalk on top, I am going to key around a long shot I have always been high on that hopefully is set for the best run of his career.

#10 Antiquarian is not flashy like his stablemates and was a bit of a late bloomer, but the Preservationist colt keeps improving and doing so as the distances get longer. He has shown the ability to win when up very close to the early pace, as well as off the pace when there is a rabbit like he did last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G2). The Centennial Farms runner loves 10-furlongs and should be one of those getting a favorable first run on #4 Contrary Thinking. I am hopeful it will be good enough to have him around at the wire late with Luis Saez getting the leg up for the first time. I will key Antiquarian in the Exacta-Thon for first and second with two of the favorites and #2 Baeza, who may not be good enough, but still is improving for trainer John Shirreffs.

Play: Exacta Key Box 10 with 1+2+5