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Horse Cents: The Paper Trail | Claiming Crown at Churchill Downs

by Bailey Armour

November 14, 2025

Saturday’s card at Churchill highlights the unsung heroes of the local circuit: the claiming horse. Coined in 1999 by the National Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association and the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association, this octet of starter allowance races run for a sum of $1.1 million in purse money celebrates the hard-knocking horses across both surfaces at a variety of distances. Before all that action kicks off, fillies and mares will dazzle us in the one-turn mile Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes.

Successful Win bets on the card will come with an extra 20% bonus from Xpressbet and 1/ST BET, up to $20 per player on your cumulative Win bet winnings. Say that five times fast.

Race 3 – Chilukki S.

This field of seven talented fillies and mares is full of short prices, but I’ve got my eye on a mare making her debut for the Brad Cox barn after spending the majority of her 17 starts in Canada under the Martin Drexler banner. That’s the #3 LITERATE with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard who’s been training in Cox’s Ellis Park string since early October. Horses making their first start for Cox win at a healthy 34% clip combined with 27% and 28% in dirt races and routes, respectively. Her 10-1 morning line price sure doesn’t hurt, either.

Race 10 – Claiming Crown Jewel

The jewel of the card (pun intended, obviously) is a 1 1/8 mile effort for three-year-olds and up who have started for a claiming price of $35,000 or less in the last year, now running for their shot at $200,000 in purse money. I like a pair of four-year-old geldings in this race, #7 DOUBLE YOUR MONEY and #10 BERNIN HOT. DOUBLE YOUR MONEY drops in class and cuts back in distance off a win at Aqueduct, but it’s his performance two starts back I’m most impressed with. The Grade 3 Greenwood Cup at Parx is one of a handful of mile and one-half races on the US calendar and he managed to stay in second behind the pacesetter for almost a mile, then just barely got nabbed a length and a quarter at the finish.

#10 BERNIN HOT, a front running pace setter is 3 for his last four, including one at Churchill at the same distance as the Jewel. He’s somewhat of a horse-for-course with eight of his twenty lifetime starts having come at Churchill and four of those all wins. Luis Saez sticks in the tack again after that September 18 win. That effort earned him a field topping 91 Beyer and those figures continue to improve after his move to the Rohan Crichton barn.

What Would Scott Do?

It wouldn’t be a version of Horse Cents without Scott Shapiro, who’s graciously provided his picks in some key races on Saturday’s card.

Race 3: #6 ONE MAGIC PHILLY (3-1 ML)
Race 7: #11 NEXT GIRL (5-1 ML)
Race 10: #2 CADET CORPS (6-1 ML)
Race 11: #4 NANTASKET BEACH (8-1 ML)