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Scott Shapiro: Churchill Spot Plays | Sunday, November 16, 2025

by Scott Shapiro

November 16, 2025

After a big Claiming Crown Day in Louisville, the racing week at Churchill Downs concludes this afternoon with a solid 10-race card that kicks off at 1 pm ET. Full fields and a pair of quality allowance races throughout the day make it a great card to get involved with on Sunday at 1ST/BET and Xpressbet. Here are a few horses I like most in Kentucky later today.

Race 5:

This $100k maiden claimer at 7.5-furlongs over the main track concludes the early Pick 4 and Pick 5. I like class dropper #5 Barker. The Walmac Farm homebred has simply taken on better competition in his first three starts than he does in this first try against non-winners for sale. The gate has been the issue for this 3YO gelding, but trainer Chris Davis legs up Luis Saez for the initial time in hopes that one of the best in the game at getting a horse into the race can do just that with this son of Blame. If Barker breaks with the field, he should have no issue out finishing this group after tackling solid protected maiden groups dating back to the end of August. The added ground should also work to his advantage.

Play: #5 Barker (9-2 ML)


Race 6:

The late Pick 5 kicks off with this open $40k claimer at 1 1/16-miles over the main track. #8 Carolo Rapido was set to run in the Claiming Crown Jewel at a big price yesterday, but trainer Eddie Kenneally opted for this much softer spot. I love the fact that Kenneally and Hrh Racing claimed this colt for $20k back in April, lost him in his next start for $25k, and then immediately jumped back in to reacquire him for a much steeper $50k. The son of Curlin has not lived up to expectations thus far, but has turned a corner and finds a field he should handle over a racetrack he has won 2 of 4 over thus far. Irad Ortiz Jr. should be able to angle over early, save some ground on the backstretch, and run this group down late at a playable price.

Play: #8 Carolo Rapido (7-2 ML)


Race 8:

My final play of the day comes in this MSW event for 2YO fillies at 5.5-furlongs over the main track where I like the chances quite a bit of second-time starter #1 Slay the Day. Trainer Brian Lynch is off to a strong start to the fall meet and this filly was involved early down on the rail at Keeneland on debut on a day where the outside was a bit kinder. I rarely hold a speed and fade along the inside against a first-time starter and this filly fought a bit to the wire despite giving up it mid-stretch to finish fourth. The rail again is no bargain, but she retains Luis Saez, has the speed to make the lead, and should benefit from the slight cutback after traveling 6-furlongs in the debut. Gate-to-wire to end my plays of the week in the Blue Grass.

Play: #1 Slay the Day (3-1 ML)