The final weekend of the year at Churchill Downs is upon us, which means big fields and likely a juicy Derby City 6 pool with a mandatory payout on Sunday afternoon. First things first though since Saturday is one of my favorite cards of the year under the twin spires. Not only does the Stars of Tomorrow II card include a plethora of maiden special weight events for juveniles, but also gets us back on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Also note that Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes at 6 pm ET.

My top plays on the day come over the middle part of the card where I am hopeful deuces are wild!


Race 6:

This MSW event for 2YO fillies at two-turns over the grass feels wide-open since I am against 5-2-ML favorite #4 Kentucky Belle. The Justify filly has lost at 5-2 and 6-5 already and comes in off an underwhelming third in her turf debut. She is capable of a move forward with the addition of blinkers, but I am going to take a big swing against her with #2 Karma Cat. This daughter of Practical Joke debuted and was outrun in a live MSW sprint over the main track at Saratoga before getting caught hopelessly wide into the first turn in her grass debut at Keeneland on October 18. She tired badly that afternoon in Lexington, but it was an impossible trip from the get-go. Now, the Whit Beckman trainee moves inside and possesses some early speed in a race that appears void of it for the most part. Hopefully, jockey Joe Ramos gets aggressive from the gate and gets this gal into a favorable forward position. I expect her to outrun her odds if so.

Play: #2 Karma Cat (20-1)


Race 7:

These 1 1/16-miles dirt MSW races at Churchill Downs often contain some colts that we will see on the Road to the Derby at some point. I am hopeful one of those is #2 Liberty National. The $525k Keeneland September 2024 purchase debuted at Keeneland last month for trainer Kenny McPeek in what clearly looked like a prep at 7-furlongs. The son of Maxfield broke well, but then was taken in hand by jockey Jose Ortiz. From there Ortiz let Liberty National drop hopelessly out of it before putting in a decent late run with a solid gallop out. McPeek often uses first starts as a lesson and now he turns to jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and stretches his trainee out to a route of ground. I expect a big move forward at a solid price.

Play: #2 Liberty National (6-1 ML)


Race 8: Fern Creek Stakes ($10,000 Turkey Bowl Promo-Eligible Race)

My top stakes play of the day comes in this 6.5-furlong dash for 2YO fillies where I love the chances of #2 Paige Turner. The $350k daughter of Army Mule has done very little wrong through two starts for trainer Cherie DeVaux. Her second on debut at Saratoga came with a trip between rivals that rarely results in a strong finish and she followed it up with a dominant victory over this surface going 7-panels on Halloween. The inside draw is likely to present a different type of trip than her stress-free outside stalking voyage in her maiden breaker, but she showed the ability to deal with adversity in August and has the look of a serious female sprinter.

Play: #2 Paige Turner (7-2 ML)