The Lead:
The Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park picks up steam toward the New Year, and this Saturday's Race 9 feature will be the $100,000 H. Allen Jerkens Handicap. The unique, 2-mile turf test was inaugurated in 2015 and is among the longest stakes races at a major American venue. While the race produced a 60-1 upset winner last year, we're only another year removed from a pair of favorites netting a $9 exacta return. Favorites are 6-11 in the Jerkens with 3 second-place finishes.

​​Field Depth:
PADIDDLE is multiple graded stakes-placed, including at the Grade 2 level. BELOUNI is a stakes winner in listed company, while SUMMER CAUSE is multiple listed stakes-placed. PADIDDLE and SUMMER CAUSE have consistently faced the toughest competition among these.
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Pace:
I KNOW I KNOW and DONTSPLASHTHEPOT appear most likely to set the tempo here, but SUMMER CAUSE should not be far off the pace. Over 2 miles, this race has been won on the front and from far back in recent years, so pace handicapping probably isn't the path to victory.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-RISK MANAGER: Trainer Mike Maker won this race in 2016, 2017 and 2022. A fourth win would tie Todd Pletcher for most Jerkens crowns. Risk Manager has been a consistent turf closer going middle-distances at the claiming and starter allowance level. The 7-year-old's 11-for-37 career record is admirable, which includes an April 2022 local turf mile score from 5 Gulfstream bids. Tyler Gaffalione notably jumps to Summer Cause on Saturday.

#2-I KNOW I KNOW: Nearly all of this 3-year-old's best work has come on the Tapeta synthetic surface. We've yet to see a 3-year-old win the Jerkens in 11 editions, and the 4-pound weight break on the top-carrying rivals is no major bonus.

#3-SUMMER CAUSE: Miguel Clement trainee traveled this 2-mile trip last out when a no-threat fourth of 11 at Far Hills in New Jersey. Note 9 of 11 Jerkens winners prepped at 1-1/8 miles or farther last time out, something only Summer Cause and Coiled can claim in this field. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione piloted Jerkens winners in 2016 and 2017 and opts here over Risk Manager. Likely to be a bit under-laid in terms of price for a horse who spent more time on dirt than turf, a surface in which he's 1-for-5.

#4-DONTSPLASHTHEPOT: LIghtly raced 3-year-old takes a massive leap from a maiden claiming score at 1 mile and 70 yards on Tapeta. The Kent Sweezey trainee gets in lightest at 113 pounds, including jockey Nik Juarez. Uncle Mo colt has a ton to prove while doubling distance and trying grass for the first time, but should be part of the pace.

#5-COILED: Laurel turf allowance winner at 1-1/2 miles in September for respected grass trainer Arnaud Delacour. Note 9 of 11 Jerkens winners prepped at 1-1/8 miles or farther last time out, something only Coiled and Summer Cause can claim in this field. Also, 4 of the last 5 Jerkens winners exited an allowance prep like Coiled. He's yet to try a stakes, but gets a 6-pound break from some of the favorites. Very interesting.

#6-BELOUNI: French-bred miler has been raced almost exclusively around that distance since coming to the US as a sophomore. The now 5-year-old has won 3 of his last 7, but has struggled to pair up good efforts. Jorge Abreu claimed him for $40,000 in August at Saratoga and got a solid second out of him last time out behind Jerkens rival Risk Manager at Aqueduct. Distance will be a significant hurdle.

#7-PADIDDLE: $25,000 claim in February may be 1-for-15 lifetime, but placings in the G3 Pan American, Grade 2 Man o' War and Grade 3 Belmont Gold Cup can't be overlooked. His record of a win and a third in 2 local starts looks strong against a field that is a combined 2-for-11 on the Gulfstream turf. Elizabeth Dobles takes over the training for the first time after a 2-month freshening.

#8-RUDDY BUDDY: Longshot has been 30-1 or more odds in 10 of his last 11 starts and now faces the most stern test of his career. Only victory in his last 19 starts came 12 races back at Sam Houston.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
PADIDDLE is proven over the course and at same marathon distances that indicate 2 miles won't be too much to ask.

Best Longshot Contender:
COILED is my top pick and should be a square price given the modest speed figure at Laurel in victory.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win COILED. $10 exacta box COILED and PADIDDLE.