The Lead:
It's last call on the Derby calendar for 3-year-old turfers this Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The $125,000 Tropical Park Derby caps an 11-race card that includes the Tropical Park Oaks. The Derby once was a New Year's Day kickoff race to the sophomore season, boasting winners like Kitten's Joy, Mecke and Barbaro. Now it's a just dessert to a campaign.

​​Field Depth:
Grade 3 winner TIZ DASHING is the lone graded stakes-winner in this listed field. Stakes winners include THUNDERING, CHURCH AND STATE, LAYABOUT, TANK and SOUPER FORCES. Meanwhile, SIMULATE is Grade 2-placed and CHAPMAN'S PEAK is Grade 3-placed. These are fairly well-matched, but TIZ DASHING, SIMULATE and TANK may have the strongest company lines over time.
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Pace:
ROAR OF THE BEAST is most likely to set the tone if he takes to turf. Expect TANK to be sent along from a wide draw, while DAY AND AGE and CHAPMAN'S PEAK should be in the early hunt. The pace looks average for the class and trip over 1-1/16 miles.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-THUNDERING: Trainer Derek Ryan takes over the controls of the Toronto Cup and Kent Stakes runner-up. Blinkers off last time failed to deliver positive results, so the hood goes back on this Canadian export. Last year’s Display winner at Woodbine looks to snap an 8-race losing streak.

2-DISCREET DANCER: No threat at long odds in back-to-back stakes at Gulfstream. Veteran trainer Antonio Sano gets a jockey upgrade to John Velazquez and a ground-saving trip is likely. But his 5: 0-0-0 stakes mark tells the tale.

3-TIZ DASHING: Hard-fought winner of the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Aqueduct last out despite drawing farthest outside in a field of 9. Inconsistency has been a part of the Barclay Tagg trainee’s ledger all season, but his best under Javier Castellano puts him squarely in the discussion.

4-CHURCH AND STATE: Canadian export fired a bullet workout Dec. 4 at Gulfstream for his first local appearance. He was a solid third behind Tiz Dashing in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at 28-1 odds most recently and rallied past Thundering to win the Toronto Cup in August. Should make some late noise.

5-DAY AND AGE: Potential early pace has a chance to get to the rail with little speed to his inside. Well-traveled son of Omaha Beach is with his third different trainer and wasn’t able to sustain a strong pace in his local unveiling in the Showing Up Stakes. A bit slower tempo would help the cause for trainer Mark Casse.

6-LAYABOUT: Since moving from Brian Lynch to Patrick Biancone this sprint, this gelding has shown a massive improvement. He’s won 3 of 5 with a narrow runner-up last out in the Showing Up Stakes over this course and distance. May have moved a bit too soon in that one and a rider change to Junior Alvarado should be seen as a positive.

7-CHAPMAN’S PEAK: After all 6 starts at Kentucky tracks, this Brad Cox trainee hits the road fro his Turfway Park base for the first time. He posted Kentucky Downs and Keeneland wins this fall before a strong second battling on the lead in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill. Seems to take his course with him. Tyler Gaffalione gets the call for the first time. Contender near the front from the start.

8-SIMULATE: Son of Tropical Park Derby winner Kitten’s Joy looks to follow in his sire’s footsteps. Back-to-back poor efforts in the Grade 3 Nashville Derby and Grade 3 Bryan Station are causes for concern after a strong summer saw him run second in the Grade 2 Secretariat at Colonial Downs. Regular rider Junior Alvarado hops off a Bill Mott charge in favor of Layabout in this race.

9-ROAR OF THE BEAST: 1-turn dirt speed will stretch out on turf and see what he can muster on grass for the first time. Even if he handles the footing, the distance is questionable on pedigree and his 2 prior attempts around 2 turns. Rajiv Maragh rides for the often-dangerous Saffie Joseph Jr.

10-CANDYTOWN: Todd Pletcher’s Showing Up Stakes beaten favorite looks to make amends after a fourth-place finish with traffic woes. Stalking style could be caught wide from post 10 for a horse who hasn’t always finished with flair. Best is capable, but demand some price.

11-TANK: Potential pace player didn’t get away well at all in the Saranac when last seen in September, but fresh horses often get cooking early upon their return. His 3-race winning streak in Florida earlier this year was promising and he’s run well over this course. Could bounce back after a pair of Saratoga misfires, but will have to be hard-used early from this draw.

12-SOUPER FORCES: Rallying winner of the Showing Up Stakes at 18-1 odds will likely employ a deep-closing style in hopes of avoiding ground loss in the early going Saturday. He’s 3-for-3 and yet to be favored, rewarding his backers at Presque Isle, Colonial and Gulfstream. Trainer Mike Trombetta won this Tropical Park Derby in 2024 with Souper Blessing after prepping in the Showing Up and looks to repeat that path.

AE 13-McRAVIN: Jimmy Toner trainee has a win and second in 2 Laurel efforts and would be making his first stakes bid if able to draw in from the also-eligible list. Midpack style likely to be caught wide from this draw, but the Uncle Mo colt has shown promise with more ceiling to achieve.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
LAYABOUT is 3-3 in the exacta over the course and hasn't missed the superfecta in 5 starts since a barn change. His versatile pace style gives him options.

Best Longshot Contender:
TANK's last 2 poor efforts should inflate his price and the 11-hole draw will scare some away as well. We know he can handle the course and distance, and can eliminate some variables if he breaks fast and clean.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 win LAYABOUT. $10 exacta part-wheel LAYABOUT, TANK with LAYABOUT, TANK, CHAPMAN'S PEAK, SOUPER FORCES ($60).