The Lead:
The road to the Florida Derby kicks off Saturday at Gulfstream Park with the 1-turn mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes. It's the leadoff to the series, which includes 2-turn races in the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth in-between. The Race 10 of 11 co-feature on the card shares the spotlight with the Ginger Brew Stakes. The Mucho Macho Man will be part of the Sunset 6 wager, matching the final 3 races on the card from both Gulfstream and sister track Santa Anita.

​​Field Depth:
Three of the 9 entrants are stakes-placed: ROGER THAT DANA, MAX CAPACITY and THUNDER CHUCK. All seek their first stakes victories. This race could be won on the class rise without much argument.
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Pace:
Early speed can be expected from more than half of this lineup, including from inside-out CABOURG, EPIC SUMMER, ROGER THAT DANA, BLAME YASSELF, MAX CAPACITY and THUNDER CHUCK. A horse with a strong finishing ability could be set up nicely.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-COMMANDMENT: Trainer Brad Cox wintered in Florida with a string last year for the first time and it netted Florida Derby winner Tappan Street. He'll begin that path with this second-out maiden breaker from Churchill Downs. The $500,000 Into Mischief colt popped a big 96 BRIS Late Pace Figure when fourth in his Keeneland debut, but 7F last out when winning from midpack and a faster pace. Grandson of Florida Derby winner Orb looks like the horse to beat under Irad Ortiz Jr.

#2-CALBOURG: Jose D'Angelo trainee has made the lead in all 3 starts, winning his debut, but running out of steam a bit in last 2. This barn looks for back-to-back wins in the Mucho Macho Man after Guns Loaded scored a year ago. Held some decent company lines, chasing Oscar's Hope, who since won the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta for Tom Amoss. Junior Alvarado takes the mount for the first time.

#3-EPIC SUMMER: Aqueduct debut sprint winner on Oct. 26 in nearly wire-to-wire fashion. This George Weaver trainee will pair of Tyler Gaffalione for the first time. Note his debut pursuer, Schoolyardsuperman, since returned to break his maiden for Chad Brown. Gap in workout tab between Nov. 21 and Dec. 19 means he could be a bit short on fitness.

#4-MR. HOOLIGAN: 3-race maiden is devoid of early speed after unsuccessful ventures at Presque Isle, Keeneland and Tampa Bay Downs. Hard to think the venue change to Gulfstream makes a big difference, but a pace collapse could see him passing some tired ones for Kevin Rice.

#5-ROGER THAT DANA: Debut sprint winner stretched out to 2 turns in the Florida Sire Stakes In Reality and gave way in the lane to finish third in that stakes unveiling. FSS rival Strategic Risk returns Saturday in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones Stakes. Trainer Luis Ramirez will have a third different rider in 3 starts on one expected to be part of the early pace.

#6-TRIPP'S PROMISE: Dale Romans trainee should be the one to fear late off rallying placings in 1-turn mile allowances at Churchill Downs. His 92 BRIS Late Pace Figure over a mile should translate very well here under Corey Lanerie, who likes to save ground when possible. Romans trained the grandsire Shackleford and sire Promises Fulfilled to much success at Gulfstream and beyond.

#7-BLAME YASSELF: Cross-entered in a Friday allowance at Gulfstream, but John Velazquez named to ride in the Mucho Macho Man gives you the sense he'll end up here. Victor Barboza Jr. trains the son of Blame, who outran his route genes to win sprinting Nov. 15 in his debut -- wire-to-wire no less. Projects to improve with distance and could be a factor throughout among the pace players.

#8-MAX CAPACITY: Mid-Atlantic, well-seasoned Maxfield colt exits a runner-up finish in the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, a race won easily by 1-9 favorite and 2-2 unbeaten Solitude Dude for Saffie Joseph Jr. This Ricard Silaman trainee has been inconsistent, but has probably faced the best competition in the field, including Balboa, who since ran third in the Remsen and goes in Saturday's Jerome at Aqueduct. Tough read, but not incapable.

#9-THUNDER CHUCK: Monmouth maiden breaker for Jorge Delgado was no match for Ewing et al in the Saratoga Special before getting some time off. Return second in the Juvenile Sprint at Gulfstream in late November was a positive sign behind 4-5 favorite Hammond. Don't think he's fast enough to make the lead and not sure he really wants to pass horses.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
TRIPP'S PROMISE gets the right pace set-up and is proven in 1-turn miles with a pedigree to like the track.

Best Longshot Contender:
No huge bombs projected, but BLAME YASSEL may get overlooked to a small degree.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win TRIPP'S PROMISE. $10 exacta key-box TRIPP'S PROMISE with COMMANDMENT and BLAME YASSELF ($40).