The Road to the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby heat up on Saturday when Fair Grounds hosts a strong 13-race card led by the Lecomte (G3). The 1 1/16-mile test for 3YOs kicks off the next stage on the Derby leaderboard with 20 points going to the winner. The early Derby prep closes out an All-Stakes Pick 4 that kicks off with a Kentucky Oaks points race and also includes a Grade 3 for the older handicap horses. Therefore, as you might expect 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are celebrating with a Hit & Split offer. In fact, it is the last of three early January 1M Points Hit & Splits. Some of you might have already registered, but for those that who have yet to do so, be sure to head to the promotional landing page and click on that register button.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 10: Silverbulletday
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1 Atropa
Backups: None

Forecast: The Road to the Fair Grounds Oaks picks up as well on Saturday with the first of 3 Kentucky Oaks points races conducted in New Orleans over the next few months. The two-turn test drew a compact of group 6 where 2-1-ML favorite #1 Atropa looks like a bit of a stand out. The Into Mischief filly chased a wire-to-wire winner over the slop at Saratoga on debut, but since then has put forth two strong performances at a route of ground. The first one came when she dominated a field of MSW foes going 8.5-furlongs at Keeneland in October, but what was most encouraging is that she did not regress in her first start versus winners in the Golden Rod (G2) over Thanksgiving weekend. She was unable to get to the wire first at Churchill Downs that day, but missed by just half a length. The $450k Keeneland September ’24 purchase arrived down at in the Bayou in late December and has worked well since arriving. She should handle this bunch.


Race 11: Colonel E. R. Bradley
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Lagynos; 9 Reagan’s Wit; 1 Kupuna
Backups: 3 Idratherbeblessed; 5 Cameo Performance

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in the lone turf race in the sequence where the top three from last month’s Dilberto Memorial return to take on a number of new runners that have serious chances. #1 Kupuna and #4 Lagynos are deserving favorites that do not have to win, but are the likeliest to do so, while #9 Reagan’s Wit has some upside in his first start as a 4YO for Cherie DeVaux. I am tired of getting beat by Fair Grounds specialist #3 Idratherbeblessed, so I included him as a backup along with Brendan Walsh’s #5 Cameo Performance. A tough race with some solid veteran turf routers. I wish I had more conviction.


Race 12: Louisiana (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Moonlight; 7 Willy D’s
Backups: None

Forecast: This 1 1/16-mile event for 4YOs and up definitely goes through 8-5-ML favorite #8 Just a Touch. Not only is the Brad Cox barn white-hot to kick off the meet, but the son of Justify is 2 for 2 over this surface and has run the fastest races. He is the likeliest winner, but not the best gamble in this year’s Louisiana. He comes in off a 6-month break and may have to work on the front end a bit. #7 Willy D’s has struggled to win races at Oaklawn Park, but ships into New Orleans off a strong runner-up effort in Hot Springs to favorite Rattle N Roll to end his 2025 campaign. The change in venue, slight cutback in distance, and recency edge could make the difference. I will use him, as well as late running #1 Moonlight in hopes of beating the likely heavy favorite. Moonlight lacks speed, but can certainly finish. If they go at it early, he should be absolutely rolling late under leading rider Jose Ortiz.


Race 13: Lecomte (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 White Tiger; 5 Golden Tempo
Backups: 10 Stop the Car; 11 Chip Honcho; 7 Mesquite

Forecast: This year’s Lecomte drew a competitive field to kick off the Road to the Louisiana Derby, but there are not a ton of runners I expect to make an impression in this year’s Kentucky Derby. That said, if there is one it is #5 Golden Tempo. The Curlin colt broke slowly yet still won stylishly in a 6-furlong event over this racetrack last month. I am not in love with the idea of backing young horses that break slowly on debut in sprints and make big runs late in their follow up start because the first try does not remotely simulate the experience they will encounter when they break with the field. Admittedly though, talented horses break that model from time to time making Golden Tempo hard to leave off, but I like #8 White Tiger most. The Twin Creeks Farm colt is unlikely to get better as the distances get longer, but he has already showed grit and determination through two starts. The way he has finished races not only suggests he has more to give, but also that he has a will to win. At his 8-1-ML price he is my top choice in the first of 3 Derby preps at Fair Grounds this year.