by Scott Shapiro
February 27, 2026
After a slow week when it comes to Triple Crown preps, things pick up big time this weekend on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. A pair of qualifiers take place on Saturday afternoon with Oaklawn Park taking center stage on Sunday. As many of you know, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet launched a $10 Money Back offer earlier this year on all Triple Crown prep races. It continues this weekend with a trio of opportunities for horseplayers. Here is how I plan to take advantage of my Money Back plays. If it is your first time jumping in on this promotion, remember to register.
Gotham (G3), Aqueduct Saturday Race 10
The first of the three Derby qualifiers is the lone one-turn points race on the weekend. This one-mile event over the Aqueduct main track drew a field of 9 led by 6-5-ML favorite #6 Iron Honor. The Chad Brown trainee broke his maiden in impressive fashion going 6-furlongs in mid-December and has been given time since. Brown opts to ship him back north for this spot despite the fact he has been training in Payson Park in Florida over the last month plus. He is the likeliest winner, but given the Money Back Offer insurance and his likely price it makes sense to look elsewhere. #2 Hammond is a colt that should get a great trip in his first start outside of the Sunshine State for Saffie Joseph. He did not get out of the cleanly when we saw him run third in the Swale in late January, but still ran decent to finish third to his undefeated stablemate. If he can relax along the inside early, he should have a big chance when they turn for home.
Play: #2 Hammond (5-1 ML)
Fountain of Youth (G2), Gulfstream Race 14
I am not sure all three of the morning line favorites in this year’s Fountain of Youth will run their races, but expect at least one of them to exit arguably the strongest prep to date with a spot all but assured in the Derby starting gate. #4 Commandment is listed as the considerable public choice after his win in the Mucho Macho Man. He is likely to run his race and get a favorable setup, but I think there is a good chance there is at least one better. #7 Napoleon Solo is probably the likeliest to be that horse by getting the jump, but the value will most likely be better with #7 Chief Wallabee. The Constitution colt won under wraps and did so extremely professionally in his debut on January 10. He has to answer the two-turn question and prove he belongs at this class level, but projects to get a great trip. I will use my Money Back play on him, assuming he is a bigger price than Napoleon Solo.
Play: #6 Chief Wallabee (9-2 ML)
Rebel (G2), Oaklawn Sunday Race 11
I struggled coming up with a strong opinion in this $1M event at 1 1/16 miles. #4 Blackout Time can definitely win, but is an underlay at his ML price. #2 Litmus Test is likely to get bet down from his ML offering and might have things his way on the front end, but has yet to prove to me is a supremely talented runner. Mark Casse holds a strong hand much like he did in the Southwest (G3) with winner #7 Silent Tactic and Smarty Jones winner #6 Strategic Risk. Silent Tactic has been very good through two starts on dirt, but his running style requires him to get the right trip and setup. On the other hand, Strategic Risk usually puts himself into the race making things a little easier on himself. That was not the case in the Southwest though when he got caught in chase mode immediately and was not competitive from there. Without D’Code and Buetane, I expect this pace to be far more moderate though, which should allow jockey Javier Castellano to stalk just off the pace like he did well to kick off his 3YO campaign. At his likely price, I will take a chance he bounces back big on Sunday evening.
Play: #6 Strategic Risk (12-1 ML)