We have had a lot of Triple Crown preps in 2026, but it really felt like we turned the corner into Derby season last weekend with the Gotham (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2) on Saturday and the Rebel (G2) on Sunday. The one-turn Gotham was won by Iron Honor despite the favorite being given all he could handle by Ohio-bred Crown the Buckeye, while the Fountain of Youth saw a strong stretch battle between Commandment and Chief Wallabee. The Rebel being moved to Sunday was an extremely welcome change and saw another tussle in the lane with Class President getting the best of Southwest (G3) winner Silent Tactic. With that in the rearview, it is time to dive into this week’s “Prep School.”


Horse Most Likely to Hit the Board in Kentucky Derby Heading into March: Commandment

Wathnan Racing’s Commandment found his way to the wire first for the third consecutive start on Saturday in the Fountain of Youth. The Into Mischief colt’s only loss came with a less-than- ideal trip on debut against one of the better MSW fields at Keeneland last fall. Since then, he has improved in each start emerging as trainer Brad Cox’s top Derby prospect two months out with Further Ado set to make his 3YO debut in Tampa this weekend.

There was a lot to decipher out of Commandment’s win at Gulfstream Park last weekend. He was able to save ground throughout, while Chief Wallabee spent his time well off the rail. The caveat is that the main track at Gulfstream has played towards the outside for several weeks now making longer trips on the outside part of the track advantageous. The track was less biased the last few days of the racing week, so I do not want to make the claim that Commandment fought this insane bias, but just that a coveted pocket trip might not have been as good as it appears at first glance. Commandment drifted out quite a bit late, but some of that may have been race riding. Plus he is still learning and earned a strong 104 Brisnet late pace rating. With the best rider in the country likely to be aboard him in Triple Crown races and the ability to finish, Commandment is my most likely horse to hit the board in this year’s Run for the Roses at this point in time.


Kentucky Derby Prospect You Might Have Missed: Cherokee Nation

Last week it was Reagan’s Honor announcing his presence on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with an allowance victory at Fair Grounds. This week saw another intriguing 3YO put forth a noteworthy effort in a race you might have missed. Cherokee Nation came into his start against some older runners having competed five times without a victory. The $1.15M purchase chased Boyd on debut at Del Mar before losing by head in his second start. This was enough for trainer Bob Baffert to send the colt to Louisville for the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in late November. Things did not go well that day followed up by a pair of starts back in Southern California where he had issues at the start. Obviously, everything was great about his huge move forward last Friday, but breaking sharply and putting himself into the race immediately was as important as anything. The son of Not This Time did not beat much in his maiden victory, but did it well and now will get a chance to get into the Derby starting gate in his next start.


Most to Prove This Weekend: Brant

Two of the bigger names from 2025 make their first start of 2026 on Saturday. Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Further Ado is scheduled to make his 3YO debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Brant is entered in the San Felipe (G2). Both have little room for error with just two months until the Kentucky Derby, but in a tight photo I will argue Brant has the most to prove. The $3M OBS March 2025 purchase ran a hole in the wind on debut, but did not get back to that effort in his two starts against stakes company. He sped to the lead early and battled some in his first two-turn start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) before giving way to finish third. It is not all or nothing for Brant on Saturday at Santa Anita, but he needs to prove his class and his ability to get two-turns against a field he is supposed to handle. I am looking forward to seeing him run as part of the “Big Cap” card in Arcadia this weekend!