Get set for the season’s biggest day at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday when five stakes races make up Tampa Bay Derby Day. A trio of those are among the late pick 4, a sequence that lacks an obvious single but also looks to be reachable without a terribly deep leg.

Tampa Race 9: Hillsborough Stakes (4:29 pm ET)

The Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf ended in an absolute melee and several alumnae from that race re-matched. The deep-closing winner Destino d’Oro got the pace set-up and avoided any issues rallying wide. Don’t see the same set-up here. #6 Child of the Moon is a fresh face and hits a second-off-the-layoff form cycle for the ever-dangerous Chad-Irad team. Won a similar situation to open 2024 before missing all of 2025. Of the Pegasus returnees, #1 Whiskey Decision got a rousing 105 BRIS late pace figure in that one, which is not easy to do in a fast-paced race, even if you’re a deep closer like her. #8 And One More Time could get an easier pace this time after a wide draw really made her work for it near the engine at Gulfstream. I’ll dance with a trio: 6,1,8 in order of preference.

Tampa Race 10: Florida Oaks

With strong early speed in the extreme inside and outside posts, that’s often a recipe for an even faster pace than expected as one hustles to keep position and the other hustles to avoid ground loss into the clubhouse turn. The beneficiary may be #5 Dandona, who returned from 8 months away to run a solid allowance third with an eye-popping 111 BRIS late pace figure. She may be rolling late under Prat for Saffie against a field typically in the 80s late. No doubt #7 Time to Dream (pictured) is the filly to beat if she runs back to her early 2YO form. The Todd Pletcher trainee also benefits from the projected fast pace. Two will do: 5,7.

Tampa Race 11: Tampa Bay Derby

Nothing creative here. #6 Further Ado was one of the more impressive juveniles a season ago, has been aimed at this race and the Blue Grass all winter and has hit the mark with a perfectly spaced workout tab. Couldn’t see much on video through the fog in a few of those moves at 1st.tv, but showed good energy through the lane. #9 Canaletto was brilliant in his Gulfstream debut, but an outside post and lighter-than-expected late pace figure in a blowout 1-turn mile victory, make me want to demand more value intra-race. Still a big threat. #5 Powershift would be so surprise at all off a big maiden runner-up to a rival headed to the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Pletcher won the Sam F. Davis with maiden Renegade and could continue that. Covered with quality: 6,9,5.

Tampa Race 12: maiden special weight

Chad Brown virtually owns the turf filly races, so when he sends out a pair of maidens with Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat partnered, it’s safe to say they’ll be formidable as he’s 35% wins and 50% in the exacta at the current Tampa meet. #8 Fund Flows debuts under Irad, while Parfois was DQ’d from a debut victory in France in August and returns under Prat. But don’t sleep on the 2-3 finishers of a Jan. 21 local heat that was won by a $500,000 rookie for Tom Proctor. #10 Consider Me First and #5 Tiz the Lady were sharp in defeat in a race that finished faster the fourth quarter than the third-quarter split, typically a good sign for a turf mile. You could bet only on Brown, but I’ll use more: 5,8,10,11.

The Ticket

6,1,8 with 5,7 with 6,9,5 with 5,8,10,11 = $36 for $.50