Last weekend was the last light one in terms of Triple Crown preps until we get to the Lexington at Keeneland in mid-April. New Orleans and Northern Kentucky take center stage this Saturday afternoon presenting the biggest cards of their meet with Florida and Arkansas waiting on deck for a pair of monster Kentucky Derby prep cards on March 28. So, without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s edition of “Prep School.”

Horse That Made the Biggest Impression Last Weekend: Incredibolt

In last week’s edition of Prep School, Riley Mott-trained Incredibolt was listed as the horse with the most to prove. A week later, the connections of the Bolt d’Oro colt have to be thrilled with what they saw from their 3YO on Saturday in Virginia after the dud in the Holy Bull (G3). Incredibolt relaxed professionally between rivals in a bit of a tight spot early just a few lengths off the lead. Jockey Jaime Torres remained patient on the Pin Oak Stud runner most of the way before diving inside mid-stretch and dominating from there. The path from here to Louisville is a tricky one given the seven-week break, but regardless Incredibolt did all he could last weekend to remind us how good he was at Churchill Downs last fall. It will be interesting to see if Mott can have him ready for his best off a longer break that most on the first Saturday in May.


Horse That Provided Best Value in Future Pool 5: Reagan’s Honor

One could argue that most horses offered at least some value when Kentucky Derby Future Pool 5 closed on Sunday evening since no horse went off below odds of 8-1. That said, there were certainly a few noticeable underlays seven weeks out from this year’s Run for the Roses beginning with Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt. I was impressed with the aforementioned Riley Mott trainee, but recency bias was on full display sending him off at 16-1. I was also surprised the public made Nearly the co-third choice at 12-1. From my calculus, he has to beat Commandment and Chief Wallabee in the Florida Derby (G1) or else is almost certain to be double-digit odds in the Kentucky Derby. I have him as the third likeliest to do that.

The horse that clearly offered the most value was Reagan’s Honor. Sure, the Cherie DeVaux trainee has to run first or second in the Blue Grass (G1) to earn a spot in the starting gate, but this is a wager about ceiling and getting horses you like into the race at significantly higher prices than they are on race day. If Reagan’s Honor wins the Blue Grass, he will be between 8 to 10 to 1 on Derby Day. Winning what appears to be the strongest prep heading in will be a tall task, but he has unlimited ceiling for a barn that has a trip to the Derby winner’s circle in their future.

For those keeping score, my final wagers in this year’s Future Pools are below. Obviously, adding a horse late hurts my overall value since only one runner can cross the wire first, but this just felt like too good of a price to not include Reagan’s Honor in my limited portfolio.

Pool 3 KDFW:
1-unit Cannoneer (24-1)
1-unit Renegade (37-1)

Pool 4 KDFW:
1-unit Blackout Time (32-1)

Pool 5 KDFW:
1-unit Reagan’s Honor (38-1)


Horse With the Most to Prove This Weekend: Emerging Market

The Louisiana Derby (G1) and Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3) are the points races this weekend on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with an obvious answer to the horse with most to prove. Chad Brown conditioned Emerging Market busted on the Derby trail in early February posting a big number on all metrics in his two-turn maiden debut victory at Tampa Bay Downs. At the time, it appeared to be a super live race on the Sam F. Davis undercard with the top two runners besting the rest of the field by more than 13 lengths in the end. However, the hard trying runner-up that day Powershift came back to put forth an absolute clunker in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) making folks wonder just how good the victory will prove to be. Brown sends the Candy Ride colt to New Orleans where he will not be anywhere close to his 6-1 ML price in the premier race of the meet at Fair Grounds. The outside draw and move up into stakes company will present obvious challenges for the Klaravich Stables colt, but this is not a strong edition of the Louisiana Derby. In fact, the victor is unlikely to see much action at Churchill Downs, unless maybe Emerging Market wows us. Chad Brown has Paladin waiting to run at Keeneland as one of the current favorites. The New York-based trainer could find himself with a strong 1-2-punch in this year’s Kentucky Derby if he gets a big run from this colt on Saturday. A modest effort and the plans will change.