The time is getting closer. The start of the Triple Crown in Louisville is a little over six weeks away meaning the biggest round of Kentucky Derby qualifiers is upon us. It starts this Saturday with a pair of 100-points to the winner events east of the Mississippi. The Louisiana Derby (G1) at Fair Grounds and the Jeff Ruby (G3) at Turfway Park are the headliners and of course both are included in our ongoing “Triple Crown Prep Races Money Back Special” promotion. Remember, you get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horses finishes second or third. The insurance is great, but here are my thoughts on I like to win each prep.


Louisiana Derby (G1), 6:42 eastern

This year’s Louisiana Derby did not come up as strong as some of the other final preps will over the next couple of weeks, but it essentially rewards two horses with a spot in the Derby starting gate nonetheless. The field lacks depth making debut maiden winner #9 Emerging Market the likely first or second choice when all is said and done. The Klaravich Stables colt ran a huge number on all metrics in besting Powershift at Tampa Bay Downs in early February, but that runner-up did not come back to perform well in his first start versus winners raising questions. That said, the Chad Brown trainee offers the most upside in the field and attracts Flavien Prat.

Emerging Market may be the best hope as a Triple Crown prospect in this group, but #3 Chip Honcho is the likeliest to run his race. The son of Connect is not flashy, but has been consistent through five starts. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen took the blinkers back off Chip Honcho last out and he still showed speed, but was beaten in the final strides by Paladin. The stable mate of Emerging Market is one of the Derby favorites heading into the Blue Grass (G1), so the loss was not overly concerning, but Chip Honcho did have things his way. With Luis Saez back aboard, he should have his way early again in a race without much serious speed signed on. I will roll with the Gun Runner S. winner with the first of my two Money Back plays on Saturday evening.

Play: #3 Chip Honcho

Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3), 6:25 eastern

The deeper and more competitive qualifier comes less than 20 minutes earlier in Northern Kentucky with the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks. The event of course is over Turfway Park’s all-weather surface raising questions annually, but the 100-points awarded to the winner certainly earns them a spot in the 20-horse starting gate in early May. Recent history proves that some of those that run well in Florence’s biggest race certainly belong in the field despite their lack of dirt form heading in. The same will be true in 2026 as the field of 12 lacks runners with dirt form outside of #12 Stop the Car, but there is some legitimate talent in this contest each year no matter how you slice it. The field is led Southern California import #11 Stark Contrast. The Amerman Racing Stables runner has won 3 of 4 since moving to two-turns on the turf, but tries the all-weather for the first time. Trainer Michael McCarthy won this race in 2024 with Endlessly and obviously holds a strong hand this year, but I prefer a colt that will provide much greater value.

#4 Two Out Hero made his first start off a five-month break last month in the Battaglia Memorial after a strong third-place finish in the Summer (G1) to end his 2YO season. Going into the Battaglia, it looked like a likely prep for this race by trainer Kevin Attard to set him up for a big run in this Ruby. Unfortunately for his connections, Two Out Hero stumbled big time at the start costing him greatly from his far outside draw. The War Front colt made a middle move before tiring badly, but the result last out means little to me. Now, the Gold Square LLC runner moves inside, has a race over this surface, and should offer solid value off of the poor performance on February 21. Gerardo Corrales will take the call for the first time on this $240K Keeneland September 2024 purchase.

Play: #4 Two Out Hero (8-1 ML)