We are approaching the end of March and it is fair to say no horses have totally separated from the pack with less than 40 days until they break from the gate for the Kentucky Derby. The Jeff Ruby (G3) and Louisiana Derby (G2) are in the rearview mirror with a massive weekend of Triple Crown preps over the next two weeks. Let’s dive into this week’s edition of “Prep School.”

Horse That Impressed Most Last Weekend: Emerging Market

Fulleffort’s victory as the 9-5-public choice in the Jeff Ruby was impressive over the all-weather, but it would be unfair not to reward this to Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market. The Chad Brown trainee earned a graded stakes victory going 1 3/16-miles after just one prior start. On the surface it is difficult not to be impressed with that. However, the question is how impressive was it and how does it stack up to his possible competition on the first Saturday in May.

It was nice to know after two starts that Emerging Market is able and willing to come out ahead in a battle to the wire, but other than that I was largely underwhelmed by his narrow score in New Orleans. His main rival on paper Chip Honcho put in a dud and the horse he was all out to beat finished a well-beaten third two-back in the Cal Cup Derby. One can argue that the Reddam Racing homebred is on the come based on his last two races, but he seemingly still has a long way to go to get to the top of this crop. Emerging Market is obviously a talented colt with a bright future, but is likely to be an underlay in the first leg of the Triple Crown.


My Top Tier of Derby Contenders Less than 40 Days Out (no order):

For the first time this year, I tried to lay out a Top 5 or Top 10 like I have done in years’ past. Largely, that endeavor always seemed at least somewhat forced. This year, I struggled to not only come up with the bottom of that list in late March, but also separating the four horses I give the biggest shot at winning the 2026 Run for the Roses. Chief Wallabee is the colt that appears most talented, but trainer Bill Mott is asking a lot of him over a short period of time. That said, I love the way this horse moves. He is super serious. Commandment is the more proven commodity and beat Chief Wallabee on the square in the Fountain of Youth (G2). I trust him most at this point to hit the board. Renegade is a horse I have been high on for months. He did nothing to change my mind in the Sam F. Davis, but needs to run well in Hot Springs on Saturday to even get in the field. Reagan’s Honor has 0 points since he has yet to compete in a points race, but his last win at Fair Grounds was eye-popping. If he runs first or second in the Blue Grass (G1), he not only will find his spot in the starting gate, but also be a serious player. These are the four Derby prospects I am highest on come May 2 heading into the final few weekends of preps.

Horse With Most to Prove This Weekend: Nearly

Todd Pletcher could hold a strong hand in another Derby, especially if he gets a big effort on Saturday from Nearly. The son of Not This Time has rattled off three consecutive victories for Pletcher since arriving in Florida after his debut in late October. His wins have been easy ones, but against softer competition than he encounters in the Florida Derby (G1). Plus, his victory going two-turns for the first time in the Holy Bull (G3) came with a favorable trip over the right part of the Gulfstream main track. The Centennial Farms runner once again draws outside his main competition, but still has plenty to prove despite the winning streak in the Sunshine State. I am not in love with his chances against Commandment and Chief Wallabee, but have been proven wrong plenty of times. We will soon see if Nearly belongs in that top tier above.