After a weekend that saw Commandment and Renegade jump to the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with their off-the-pace victories in the Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby (G1), it is time to start thinking about another massive Saturday. The Blue Grass (G1), Wood Memorial (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) will help us determine who is in and who is likely out in this year’s Run for the Roses. So, without further ado, let’s dive into another edition of Prep School.


Re-Evaluating My Top Tier Heading into April:

Heading into last Saturday, I had a four-horse top tier of Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Reagan’s Honor, and Renegade. I am not making any major adjustments heading into April. Commandment beat Chief Wallabee for the second consecutive race and is almost certain to be one of the favorites on the first Saturday in May, but I still think the Chief can turn the tables in Louisville. Neither of them is likely to be my top choice come Derby Day, but neither is close to a toss either. Obviously, Renegade’s performance in Hot Springs felt good for my future wagers, but now the Todd Pletcher trainee is likely to be a relatively short price in the Kentucky Derby. He is certainly tops on my list with Reagan’s Honor yet to compete, but when it comes to gambling, he will be tough to push all-in on. His running style will leave him a lot to do and he may not have a ton of pace to chase. More obviously to come soon.


Most Disappointing Horses Last Weekend: Nearly and Blackout Time

Nearly is the obvious answer to this weekly segment of Prep School. The Centennial Farms colt took a ton of early money and surprisingly went off the 7-5 top choice, but failed the public big time with his off the board run despite a clean trip. It remains to be seen what is up next for the son of Not This Time, but he appears overmatched against the top of this crop. Others are probably not surprised by Blackout Time’s no show in Arkansas, but I was. The Kenny McPeek trainee caught my eye as a 2YO and was expected to peak in this race and ideally in Louisville, but clearly, he has not moved forward as a 3YO. I am sure McPeek will still give him shots at glory, but my futures bet on this guy is in the paper shredder.



Most Likely Pacesetter (as of March 31) in the 2026 Kentucky Derby: ????

Honestly, heading into the final big weekend of Triple Crown preps, the lack of speed signed on to this race is worthy of discussion. A lot can change on Saturday, but as of now very few horses that have qualified for this year’s Derby possess early speed. That does not mean the pace will be a crawl given the field size and what is on the line, but trying to come from well out of it could be a tough task in 2026.

Who can change this? There appears to be a lot of speed entered in this year’s Wood Memorial, but that could set things up for a closer. However, a return to form from Napoleon Solo or another big run on the front end from Talk to Me Jimmy would have major implications on the potential race shape in Louisville. A number of winners in the Santa Anita Derby could also change the landscape since we know California speed is serious. If Cherokee Nation shows speed from the inside and runs another big one on or near the front end on Saturday, he could have a pace advantage as one of the Kentucky Derby’s top choices. We will see what happens in the Blue Grass, but at quick glance at probables, those entered are unlikely to make the lead come Derby time. It will be fascinating to see how it shakes out since hot paces have been the thing of late in North America’s biggest race.


Most to Prove This Weekend: Further Ado

Brad Cox appears to have another big shot for a Derby win in 2026 with Commandment, but certainly would love to have a strong 1-2 punch heading into the first Saturday in May. Further Ado, not Commandment was the colt expected to be Cox’s best shot earlier in the campaign after he ended his 2YO season with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The son of Gun Runner underwhelmed in his runner-up effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), so not only does he need points to secure his spot in the gate, but he needs to run big to be taken seriously at Churchill Downs. He ran a hole in the wind last time he competed over the Keeneland main track. We will learn a lot about Further Ado and his chances in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon.