The Road to Kentucky Derby 152 is essentially complete with just the Lexington (G3) left to complete this weekend. There are always some changes to the field as we approach the first Saturday of May, but for the most part horseplayers know who to expect in the starting gate for the first leg of this year’s Triple Crown. With that said, let’s dive into the final edition of 2026 Prep School.

Most Impressive Horse Last Weekend: Further Ado

Regardless of the field he encountered, Further Ado clearly stood out as the most impressive horse that ran in three Triple Crown preps last Saturday. The Spendthrift Farm colt found a comfortable early position under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and pranced home to a dominant eleven-length romp. Assessing how strong the victory was in comparison to his main competition come Derby Day is a bit tricky since he clearly thrives over the Keeneland main track and did not beat much in the Blue Grass (G1). On the other hand, he has a win at Churchill Downs, has tactical speed, and probably lost less in defeat in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to the Puma then we thought at the time. You can poke holes in Further Ado, but he certainly cemented himself as a major player in this year’s Kentucky Derby with his victory by a pole last weekend.


My Derby Tiers as of April 8:

Last weekend, I began the discussion of my top tier horses for the Kentucky Derby in this series. Many like Top Ten lists or other ways of comparing the best in the crop, but I prefer putting them in tiers, especially before the all-important draw. Since there is not enough data yet to make full on selections or construct bets, it seems difficult to pin point an exact number ranking for each horse. On the other hand, grouping them with others I rank similarly allows me to take the next step towards constructing bets mentally without making stances to the public that lack a bit of meaning. Being right about a top pick is great for the ego and for your readers, but has less meaning as bettor if you are betting three horses equally in the race. Here are my top three tiers for Derby 152. The first one being horses I am considering as key horses. The second being those with the ceiling to win, but are unlikely to be keys while the third tier are horses that have upside and talent, but may not be set for their best for the Derby.

Tier 1: Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, The Puma
There are four horses I am considering building my wagering around in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Renegade and Commandment are likely to be two of the three favorites when they head to the gate on May 2 and their running style could put them in a tough spot if the pace is not as quick as it has been in years’ past. I will almost certainly use the off-the-pace colts on almost all of my tickets, but Chief Wallabee and The Puma should provide better value. Both have done little wrong thus far. Chief Wallabee did not finish as well as many expected in the Florida Derby (G1), but that was only his third career race. He has a chance to get the jump on many of his main rivals in Louisville and almost definitely will be double-digit odds when all is said and done. Gun to head, he would be my selection today based on value, but thankfully there is plenty of time to make the call. I am content with my top tier though a little more than three weeks out.

Tier 2: Further Ado, So Happy
You cannot use them all in a 20-horse race and Further Ado is likely to be one of the odd ones out for me in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. The Brad Cox trainee has done little wrong since stretching out to two turns for the first time at Keeneland last fall, but he really does seem to have an affinity for that surface. Sure, he won in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and ran second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but there is something about the dirt at Keeneland that brings out the best in Further Ado. There is certainly a chance, he is set for his best third off the bench and like Chief Wallabee projects to get the jump on many of his main rivals, but I side with others when it comes to the most logical options for this year’s Derby. So Happy is a bit more intriguing because he will be a way bigger price. I have questions still about the Mark Glatt trainee and his ability to get the ten furlongs at Churchill Downs, but he definitely relaxed kindly and finished well in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). I doubt he will move into my top tier over the next few weeks, but he is a solid “B” at the moment for me after his career best run last weekend.

Tier 3: Emerging Market, Fulleffort, Incredibolt, Potente
The horses outside of Tier 3 are highly unlikely to be on any of my tickets come May 2, but the jury for me is still out on the four runners in this tier. Emerging Market has obvious upside for Chad Brown after his win in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but I am not yet convinced he is ready to perform at his best quite at Churchill Downs. Fulleffort has a strong turn of foot, but has to prove himself over the dirt. I will probably end up using him underneath in the exotics. Incredibolt has shown a high ceiling, but will head into the biggest race of his career not having run since besting a soft bunch in the Virginia Derby. The upside again is there, but it will be difficult for trainer Riley Mott to have him peaking in Louisville. Finally, Potente is probably not good enough, but could have be one of those with a tactical advantage given the lack of serious speed types signed on. The fact he is the lone Bob Baffert trainee might hurt his price a touch, but hanging around for a slice seems within the range of potential outcomes.

That will do it for the first year of “Prep School.” Thank you to all those that followed along with the new series this year. I am always open to ideas on how to make things better next year, so please share any with me via social media. There will be plenty of Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown content to come!