Kentucky Derby week starts in earnest on Tuesday afternoon after kicking off the spring in Louisville last weekend. The “502sday” card at Churchill Downs, as it has been recently dubbed, kicks off at 12:45 eastern and is headlined by a pair of high-level allowance races at the back end of the afternoon. Here are the horses I like most on April 28.


Race 2:
I have a pair of more creative picks later in the card, but I will start the week with a short price that should be very tough to beat to kick off the early Pick 4. #1 Booked debuts for North America’s all-time leading trainer Steve Asmussen. The son of Yaupon could easily opt to run versus fellow Indiana-breds at some point soon, but instead Asmussen enters him for the more juicy $120,000 purse offered up in at Churchill Downs in MSW events for 2YOs. The rail may present a challenge if he breaks poorly, but otherwise it will provide this colt with the shortest distance between two points, instead of potentially getting caught wide with that quick run into the turn. The presence of Jose Ortiz helps illustrate that Asmussen means business with this $325k Keeneland September 2025 purchase. I expect a big run at first asking.

Play: #1 Booked (7-5 ML)


Race 3:
The pace should be honest in this starter allowance at one mile over the grass, which should lead to a favorable ground saving voyage from #2 Queen Wilhelmina. The Arkansas-bred has had a lot of chances already, but only three going long over the grass. Trainer Lindsay Schultz got the daughter of The Factor back at the beginning of the year and moved her to the lawn at Fair Grounds for the first time on January 23. The result was a win going away at a massive 49-1 offering. Since then the 5YO mare has taken on better in two first-level allowance events and held her at own both times as a long shot. Schultz has given Queen Wilhelmina a 6-week freshening and finds a perfect spot for her to earn her second career win. The move to Jose Ortiz for the first time strengths her case.

Play: #2 Queen Wilhelmina (9-2 ML)


Race 8:
This third-level allowance at 7.5-furlongs over the main track appears wide-open, so I will take a swing with #2 Hold My Bourbon. The son of Anchor Down makes his first start of the year and competes for the first time for trainer Jose D’Angelo. It was a slow winter after a strong fall for D’Angelo, but he has started to heat up again. The Florida-based conditioner won three races in Florida over the weekend, has a $2.48 ROI over a recent 30-day, 49-race sample, and gets this guy back to a racetrack he has run well over throughout his career. The pace should be contentious, which should allow the Gray V Train Racing ridgling to work out a perfect trip just off the pace under Luis Saez. Hold My Bourbon has races to go back to and comes in fresh. Hopefully, he fires a big shot at a big price.

Play: #2 Hold My Bourbon (10-1 ML)