We are just two days away from the 152nd Kentucky Derby and I could not be more excited! Things pick up quite a bit in terms of quality on Thursday, which also marks the final chance at our month long “Blooming Bankrolls” promotion. For those just checking in, it is simple. Register on the promotional landing page, bet $100 on the Thurby card at Churchill Downs, and earn a $10 bonus. Here are the horses I plan to use to earn my $10.


Race 7:
My first play on the Thurby card comes in this MSW event for fillies and mares at two-turns over the grass where #1 Honfleur is likely to be a significant favorite. The Chad Brown trainee comes in off a pair of runner-up efforts since moving to the lawn in January. The presence of Flavien Prat and the inside draw should ensure a good trip, but I do not trust her to seal the deal. I prefer #4 Cape Sounion. The daughter of No Nay Never made her first start in the States and off a near 7-month break at Gulfstream Park in late March. The race was conducted over the all-weather not the lawn and things did not go well for this Brendan Walsh conditioned filly. She broke slow as the 6-5-favorite and struggled to relax from there. Cape Sounion should run a lot better in her second start in North America after shaking off the rust and getting accustomed to her new surroundings. Walsh legs up his main man Tyler Gaffalione for the first time.

Play: #4 Cape Sounion (3-1 ML)


Race 9: Opening Verse
There is no doubt this one-mile event over the lawn goes through #8 Lagynos. The son of Kantharos was excellent in New Orleans this winter winning a pair of graded stakes convincingly. That said, he is just 1 for 8 at Churchill Downs and is going to be a short price, so I will try to turn the tables on him with #5 Chasing the Crown. Unlike the favorite, this 7YO has thrived in Louisville throughout his career. In fact, he is 4 for 7 with 2 seconds over this turf course. The pace should be honest given the presence of #4 Quatrocento and #7 Mi Bago, which gives the son of Skipshot his best chance to spring the upset. He should be set for his best after a fourth-place effort to Lagynos to start the form cycle. Juan Hernandez will be aboard for the first time.

Play: #5 Chasing the Crown (15-1 ML)


Race 10: St. Matthews
This 6-furlong dash over the main track is almost always a competitive one and this year is no exception. #2 Built was made the 3-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, but there are likely to be a few horses that take significant public support. One of those is #3 Be You. The Repole Stable gelding makes his second start off the bench after racing against the flow and moving wide into the lane in the Carter (G2) in early April. John Velazquez was aboard him when he won in Kentucky last fall and will be back onboard for the first time since. He should get an honest pace to run at. If he does, I expect him to out finish this field.

Play: #3 Be You (4-1 ML)