by Frank Carulli
April 30, 2026
The Kentucky Derby is hailed as “the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.” But horse racing fans who pour into Churchill Downs this weekend will be treated to an exciting 2 days of action before the Run for the Roses. The $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) will highlight the Friday, May 1 card and cap an all-graded stakes Pick 3 that shapes up this way:
CD 11th Race (6:56 p.m. EST) -- FULLY SUBSCRIBED won back-to-back graded stakes at 1-1/8 miles to cap her 3-year-old season. She beat Grade 1-winning millionaire Quietside and last year’s Kentucky Oaks runner-up Drexel Hill (#11 in here) by 4-plus lengths and is working forwardly for today’s Grade 2 La Troienne at 1-1/16 miles, her first Grade 1 test. DRY POWDER appeared to be forced wide on the backstretch after stumbling at the start of a one-mile allowance, but she inhaled rivals on the turn and won in a manner that stamps her a live longshot on the big step up in class. She makes her third start this year and has a near miss in the Grade 1 Cotillion – another $1 million race at this distance – to summon. MISS JUSTIFY won a minor stakes race at Churchill Downs at this distance during a $291k sophomore season in 2024. She raced only twice in 2025 for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, now starts anew for trainer Brendan Walsh, who is 37-for-173 (21 percent) with long-distance runners since February 14. At 15-1, include her on the Pick 3 ticket.
CD 12th Race (7:40 p.m. EST) -- STORM’S WAKE, IMAGINATIONTHELADY, JUST ALOOF, LION LAKE and DANDONA not only bring graded stakes-winning turf routes to the table in the $600,000 Edgewood (G-2) at 1-1/16 miles, but all have shown steady improvement. DANDONA got first run on LION LAKE on the final turn of the Grade 3 Florida Oaks, but both finished well on a ‘good’ Tampa Bay Downs surface that favored closers. JUST ALOOF slipped through a rail opening and led between calls in the stretch of a solid one-mile comeback, but she leveled off late. Add TIME TO DREAM, LORELEI and TAM TAM to the list in a deep second leg of the sequence.
CD 13th race (8:40 p.m. EST) -- You can go dizzy handicapping the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. To put the $1.5 million race for 3-year-old fillies in perspective, consider this: the 14 entrants in the main body of the 1-1/8-mile test have started 22 times in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races, combining for 10 wins and nine seconds and spanning nine tracks nationwide. PROM QUEEN was most impressive in winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, stalking a soft pace while 4-wide to the far turn, ranging up on the pace setter under confident handling and taking command in the final sixteenth. Trainer Brad Cox is 141-for-467 (30 percent) the last two years with a positive return on investment with repeat winners. ALWAYS A RUNNER (pictured), one of two entrants to race at this distance, did so in winning the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct. She made an eye-catching inside burst on the final turn, appeared as if she wouldn’t reach pace controller PASHMINA (#13) in mid-stretch, but had to find another gear late to prevail as the top pair separated from the field. Her sire, 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, produced four multiple Grade 1-winning routers and seven multimillionaires.
Suggested $1 Pick 3 Ticket
CD 11th Race: 4, 8, 9
CD 12th Race: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11
CD 13th Race: 9, 10
Cost: $48
Be sure to play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon this Friday and Saturday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for your share of extra cash.