The first of two massive days of racing are upon us at Churchill Downs where the Kentucky Oaks will be run at night in 2026. The 13-race card is great from start-to-finish and gets started at 12:30 PM eastern time with the featured event set to go to post at 8:40 PM. In terms of promotions, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are happy to bring back are popular Exacta-Thon. $10,000 will be up for grabs on both Friday and Saturday with the goal of connecting on as many $2 exactas over the course of the card. Those who connect on 6 earn an equal split of $8,000 each day with the remaining funds going to the player(s) who hit the most throughout the card.

The stakes action gets started in Race 7, but my strongest opinions come early. Let’s dive into what should hold up as one of the best of the year.

Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.

Race 1:
Grade: B
Use: 5 Mass; 1 Phantom Blue

Forecast: #1 Phantom Blue was made the odds-on ML favorite in this two-turn MSW event over the main track after battling early and tiring late sprinting over the off going at Keeneland on April 3. She cost seven-figures and did nothing to disgrace herself on debut, but I prefer the value #5 Mass should offer. The Not This Time filly moves back to the main track after being bet hard going a route of ground on debut, but failing to fire. Trainer Michael McCarthy adds the blinkers and turns to Flavien Prat. Hopefully it is go- time for a barn that is willing to be patient with some of their top runners.


Race 2:
Grade: B+
Use: 5 Quantum Burst

Forecast: One of my strongest opinions of the day comes in this second-level allowance at one-mile over the main track where I love the chances of #5 Quantum Burst. The daughter of Munnings makes her third start off the bench after a pair of races this winter for trainer Eddie Kenneally. The 4YO filly ran a solid second to stablemate Evanescence two-back off the bench before being caught four-wide on a day where the rail was best at Oaklawn Park. The freshening, success over the surface, and rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz all give this gal a huge shot in the first leg of the early Pick 4.


Race 3:
Grade: B-
Use: 9 Leilani; 10 Star Actress/3 Krissy’s Star; 2 Measure; 4 Miss Call; 6 Maximum Offer

Forecast: The two best fillies in this first-level allowance at 1 1/16-miles over the main track are drawn to the outside, which could make it more wide-open than it would be otherwise. #10 Star Actress held her own in the Ashland (G1) after earning her first win at Gulfstream Park in mid-March. She has a huge chance if able to avoid a wide voyage throughout, as does top choice #9 Leilani. The Walmac Farm runner finished strong when racing against the flow on debut at Gulfstream before crushing a field on March 1. She has unlimited upside and comes in off a strong series of works at Payson Park before a maintenance drill in Louisville. I expect a big run if she gets a clean voyage.


Race 4:
Grade: B
Use: 7 Bella Ella; 9 Lexi V./11 Tammy’s Kiss; 10 Rose of San Antone; 13 Tramuntana

Forecast: I hope to be counting my money after this 7-furlong dash over the main track for fillies and mares yet to earn their first win. I am high on two prices and will be hoping to connect on the exacta to separate potentially a bit from the pack in the Exacta-Thon promotion. #7 Bella Ella is well-bred and finished stronger in her debut sprinting than it may appear on paper. She had plenty left in the tank that day and should relish getting back to one-turn. #9 Lexi V is another price I will be using equally as much as my top choice. The Calumet Farm homebred faced stronger fields in Florida this winter than she does in this spot. The daughter of Lexitonian was down on the inside when the outside was the place to be on debut and then ran third in a solid heat in early March. Hopefully, she gets overlooked in the wagering.


Race 5:
Grade: B
Use: 11 Royal Guard; 6 Executive

Forecast: The early Pick 5 concludes with the first turf race of the day. I will use a pair in of logicals in hopes of beating the 3-1-ML favorite #10 Prepped. The promising Lael Stables colt looked serious immediately, but has struggled to win races he was supposed to win evidenced by his four defeats at 5-2 or less thus far. I prefer both #11 Royal Guard and #6 Executive. Royal Guard draws outside, but gets Irad Ortiz aboard after being caught three wide most of the way in his lone turf start last summer. She comes in fresh, but Brad Cox is more than capable of having her ready to fire off the long break. #6 Executive has had 6 chances, but showed his strongest energy late when we saw him last in mid-February. He should be finishing well once again.


Race 6:
Grade: B+
Use: 5 Paige Turner/4 Color Comin’ In; 9 Steer Clear; 14 Heaven’s Bolt

Forecast: My other strongest opinion on the Oaks Day extravaganza comes in this first-level allowance at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where #5 Paige Turner makes her first start as a 3YO for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The $350k OBS March 2025 purchase ran three good races as a juvenile, including a runner-up effort to On Time Girl in her lone start versus winners. The daughter of Army Mule has been training forwardly for her return and draws nicely. She should be tough. Do not leave #4 Color Comin’ In out underneath. The Norm Casse trainee showed talent as a 2YO and then needed her comeback race in Arkansas in late February. She has been training far more like herself since and adds blinkers.


Race 7: Unbridled Sidney (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 9 Shoot It True; 6 Shisospicy/ 4 Creed’s Gold; 1 Mae Town

Forecast: There is no doubt the first stakes of the afternoon goes through #6 Shisospicy. The daughter of Mitole makes her first start since a dominant gate-to-wire win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Her speed and her best make her the clear one to beat and tough to toss, but the tote will show that. Perhaps she is not at 100% off the layoff. #9 Shoot It True is worth a look at least. She had everything go wrong when failing at Keeneland versus lesser in early April. Shaking off the rust in Lexington and the move to an outside draw should have her more relaxed in this one.


Race 8: Eight Belles (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 8 Goodall; 4 Paradise; 6 Sippin Pretty; 3 River Wind

Forecast: #8 Goodall is my top choice in this 7-furlong dash for 3YO fillies. The Spendthrift Farm gal had a strong winter finishing second in a field of 12 on debut and followed it up with a pair of solid wins. She meets a group that has speed, but does not break nearly as well as her. This could allow Flavien Prat to get the jump and settle into a good stride in the clear. If they go at it upfront a bit, do not be surprised if #4 Paradise is involved late. The Gun Runner filly has tactical speed, but cuts back out of a 9-furlong race. I expect her to finish much stronger on the turn back to 7-panels.


Race 9: Alysheba (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 7 Skippylongstocking, 2 Baeza/1 Navajo Warrior

Forecast: I am looking forward to this Grade 2 event for the older handicap horses, but it is not a race I plan to dive into head first. #2 Baeza is obviously capable off the layoff and in Bill Mott’s barn, but is not a great bet. A 1 1/16-miles might be sharper than he prefers, plus last year’s 3YO crop has yet to prove they deserve to be over bet against older runners. Therefore, I landed on #7 Skippylongstocking. He has the recency edge and appears to be in as good of form as ever. He is 0 for 2 over this surface though, which makes backing at him at his likely price underwhelming too.


Race 10: Modesty (G3)
Grade: X
Use: 6 Gezora

Forecast: I have little desire in trying to beat the heavy favorite in this 1 1/8-miles excursion over the grass. #6 Gezora makes her first start since springing a 9-1-upset in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall. She comes in off a steady work tab and gets Flavien Prat. There are no free squares in racing, particularly at this level, but taking her on is not something I plan to do.


Race 11: La Troienne (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 1 Bless the Broken; 8 Dry Powder

Forecast: This year’s La Troienne (G1) is far more wide-open than the last couple of years when Thorpedo Anna and Idiomatic both went off at odds-on. I like #1 Bless the Broken most. The daughter of Laoban spent the early part of her career in the Will Walden barn, but was purchased last November for $950,000 by the current connections. She ran well in her first two starts for her new barn, including a runner-up effort to the extremely talented Splendora on her turf in the Beholder Mile (G1). Irad getting the call should ensure a good trip from the rail in her third start off the bench.


Race 12: Edgewood (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 3 Imaginationthelady; 9 Dandona

Forecast: This year’s Edgewood is also wide-open on paper, but I am not overly creative unfortunately. #9 Dandona is the best finisher in the field, but may not get the pace she needs to be at her best. If they go quick, I love her chances, but if not #3 Imaginationthelady should get the trip. The Not This Time filly makes her second start off the bench after being part of a blanket finish in the Appalachian (G2). She has more tactical speed than most and draws favorably along the rail.


Race 13: Kentucky Oaks (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 10 Prom Queen, 2 Zany; 9 Always a Runner/12 Bella Ballerina

Forecast: The featured event really opened up with the results of the last preps. I ended up liking three fillies equally in the end. #10 Prom Queen is my lukewarm top choice. The Gary and Mary West homebred needs to avoid getting caught up in a potential early battle, but has done little wrong thus far. The daughter of Quality Road has been pointed to two-turn races all along and has won both of them thus far for fun. Trip will be everything in this race, but all things equal I like Prom Queen to run well in her first start outside of Florida. #2 Zany lost to #11 Percy’s Bar in the Ashland (G1), but did not have nearly the trip the Ben Colebrook runner did. With the move to an inside draw, Zany should get a great trip if she is able to relax in the early going. She has been a handful and green at times still as a 3YO. #9 Always a Runner is my third “A”. The Gun Runner filly finished extremely well in the Gazelle in her first start against winners. She has unlimited upside at this point.

Best of luck on the first of two fantastic cards!