Saturday at Churchill Downs marks the first big stakes card since Kentucky Derby Day under the twin spires. “Stephen Foster Preview Day” gets started at 12:45 PM eastern and includes seven stakes races over the 11-race slate. As part of the fun on Saturday, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are offering up a 2 Million Points Hit & Split in the late Pick 4. The sequence is comprised of all graded stakes events, including the featured Blame (G3). Remember to register for the new promotion before attempting to take your share of the rewards points.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8: Aristides (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Mad House; 2 Cornucopian
Backups: None

Forecast: The late Pick 4 gets rolling with this 6-furlong dash over the main track where the inside three runners are expected to take the lions’ share of public support. #3 Roll on Big Joe was made the 9-5-ML favorite after his runner-up finish to #1 Mad House in the Count Fleet (G3). He has won 3 of 4 over this surface, but had no real excuse when turned away in Arkansas last month. He can win, but I will use the second and third choices instead. Mad House should make the lead and proved tough to get by in the lane at Oaklawn Park last out. He comes into his first local start in the best form of his career and retains Paco Lopez. #2 Cornucopian was never overly comfortable in the Churchill Downs (G1) where he underwhelmed in his first start in Louisville. The class drop and move to Flavien Prat should help his chances. It feels like a now or never type spot for the $1.1M Keeneland September ’23 purchase.


Race 9: Regret (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Tam Tam
Backups: 6 Dandona

Forecast: Four of the nine entered in this year’s Regret exit the Edgewood (G2) earlier this month. Those 3YO fillies and others try the 1 1/8-mile distance for the first time. The added ground and the race shape should benefit #9 Tam Tam. The Rigney Racing filly is a head away from being a perfect 3 for 3 since moving to the grass. She fought gamely last out losing a tight one at odds of 20-1 and should have things her way under jockey Junior Alvarado. If the pace is more contentious than it appears on paper #6 Dandona could be dangerous. The late running daughter of Tiz the Law was caught 4-wide into the first turn and remained wide throughout in the aforementioned Edgewood. She has a strong turn of foot and should get a much better trip in this spot.


Race 10: Blame (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Hit Show
Backups: None

Forecast: The prep for next month’s Stephen Foster (G1) is another race where early speed appears to be at a premium. #8 Vibe is the one who should benefit most, but the $3M son of Into Mischief has yet to prove himself at two-turns. That makes him tough to endorse or get excited about at his 9-5-ML offering. I prefer the veteran #3 Hit Show. The son of Candy Ride made the trip back to Meydan in March to defend his Dubai World Cup (G1) title, but was unable to do better than a mid-pack fifth. That said, the Brad Cox trainee has thrived at the 9-furlong distance throughout his career and should find a favorable ground saving spot off a moderate early tempo. He should handle these if set for his best off the two-month freshening.


Race 11: Arlington (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9 Quatrocento
Backups: None

Forecast: The card and sequence conclude with this 1 1/16-mile event for older runners on the grass where once again it looks like the pace should be on the moderate side. This should greatly benefit #9 Quatrocento. The son of War Front did not have an easy lead last out in the Opening Verse due to the presence of the quick Mi Bago, but should have no issues controlling the pace on the slight stretch out under regular rider Julien Leparoux. The Fausto Gutierrez trainee is winless in 3 tries over this course, but it is not as if he has run poorly in those starts. He should have no issue making the front and be tough to catch from there.