The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga took center stage this week, but do not snooze on the strong 9-race card this afternoon at historic Churchill Downs. The slate is headlined by the $500,000 Matt Winn (G3) for 3YOs at 1 1/16-miles over the main track. Here are the horses I like most on the afternoon, including my choice in the featured event.


Race 3:
My first play of the day comes in this MSW event at 7-furlongs over the main track where I am against the two ML favorites. 5-2-top choice #9 Penalty Box has had 6 chances, including three at under 9-5 and still has yet to get to the wire first. The move outside, time off, and cutback all could benefit the son of Violence, but he still is not for me. #1 Embry Show has more upside after just two starts for Bob Baffert, but has underwhelmed in both. He is likely to take quite a bit of public support due to his connections and his recent runner-up effort over this track. I will try to beat them both with #3 Time to Strike. The Not This Time colt moved into the Mark Casse barn this year after two starts as a 2YO for Tom Amoss. The first start was a mid-pack fourth going two-turns over the grass before a speed and fade effort against a much saltier field on Kentucky Derby Day. He has not proven yet that he can run fast early and still have energy late, but I am hopeful he is ready to do just that in his third start off the break.

Play: #3 Time to Strike (6-1 ML)


Race 4:
The pace should be contentious in this second-level allowance at 6-furlongs over the main track given the presence of #1 Me and Molly McGee, #4 Rojo Rita, and #7 Cut to the Chase. This should bode well for #8 Strong State. The daughter of Tom’s d’Etat has not raced since last November when she broke slowly from the inside in a five-horse field and really had no chance with the winner making an easy lead and coasting him to victory. She certainly has soundness issues of some sort based on how she has been handled by veteran conditioner Al Stall, Jr, but when she has run, she has a shown a solid turn of foot. If they go at it on the front end, it should be jockey James Graham with a lot of horse when they turn for home. Hopefully, the bargain basement $18,000 Keeneland January 2023 purchase has a strong late run in her good enough to get the money.

Play: #8 Strong State (6-1 ML)


Race 8: Matt Winn (G3)
The connections of #7 Further Ado (pictured) were hoping they would be celebrating a Belmont Stakes win yesterday after a Kentucky Derby victory five weeks ago, but the impressive winner of the Blue Grass (G1) did not run particularly well in the “Run for the Roses”. Trainer Brad Cox opted to send Commandment to Saratoga and keep this Gun Runner colt home where he has been made the even-money favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. I understand the price, but am unwilling to swallow the chalk since he simply has been awesome in two starts at Keeneland and just solid otherwise. His price is just too short to take against a solid bunch.

#3 Pavlovian intrigues a little being potentially loose on the lead under Luis Saez, but I am going back to #6 Taptastic. The Tapit colt let me down as a single on Derby Day, but did not have the right trip at all. The winner in the undercard allowance event rode the rail on the lead, while Taptastic was caught 3 wide throughout. Jose Ortiz is back in town to ride after his triumph in the Belmont and has been riding as well as anyone in a long time. Hopefully, he figured out this well-bred colt last time and gets him by the speeds in the lane at a solid price.

Play: #6 Taptastic (9-2 ML)