In addition to the stakes action in the Mid-Atlantic and the final Saturday of live racing at Santa Anita Park until the fall, Churchill Downs has yet another solid weekend slate to attack. Their 11-race card features a pair of non-graded stakes and offers a plethora of horizontal wagering opportunities. Here are a few horses I will be building my Saturday afternoon around under the twin spires.


Race 3:
My first play comes in this auction-restricted MSW event for 2YO fillies at 4.5-furlongs over the main track where I have little interest in any of the three runners with experience. Of the first-time starters, I landed on #1 Countthetrue. The Enticed filly comes into her first lifetime start off a steady series of local drills for veteran conditioner Wayne Catalano. Catalano has not won a springtime 2YO race at Churchill in some time, but that comes with a limited sample size. This Stephen Fidel homebred is out of a To Honor and Serve mare that won on debut over this surface back on 9/5/24. The rail draw in these 4.5-furlong dashes can be a major advantage if you get out of the gate in good order. Hopefully, jockey Victor Carrasco is able to do just that to kick off a middle Pick 5.

Play: #1 Countthetrue (7-2 ML)
Picks: 1-7-4


Race 7:
This third-level allowance at one-mile over the grass drew a compact group of seven where the inside three mares are likely to take the lion’s share of public support. #1 Austere was made the 2-1-ML favorite for Brendan Walsh with Matt Shirer conditioned #3 She’s Lookin Lucky listed as the 5-2-second choice. #2 Smiling Ellie is right behind them at 3-1 and my top choice. The daughter of Midshipman ran well in both of her 2026 starts, including last time out when she was between rivals, mid-pack much of the way before battling for clear sailing and almost springing the upset at odds of 14-1. Smiling Ellie was out finished that day by the 5-2-favorite that got a dream run up the inside and would be a significant favorite versus this bunch. Francisco Arrieta should be able to save ground early with the Mark Casse trainee and come with a late run strong enough to earn this gal’s sixth lifetime victory.

Play: #2 Smiling Ellie (3-1 ML)
Picks: 2-3-1


Race 8:
My final spot play of the day in Louisville comes in this $62,500 claimer at 7.5-furlongs over the main track where I will take a big swing with #8 Tom Cat Tuesday. It has not been a good spring in Kentucky thus far for trainer Genaro Garcia, but maybe his colt can take advantage of a field that appears to have a seriously lack of early speed. #7 Big City and #10 Bernin Hot are likely to be prominent early, but Tom Cat Tuesday exits a strong allowance race at 6-furlongs and has become accustomed to races that are run much faster over the first half mile. The son of Bolt d’Oro has earned 2 of his 3 career victories over this surface and should be a huge price. Hopefully, jockey Edgar Morales is far more aggressive on the stretch out than he was last time. If so, this colt should outrun his odds at the very least.

Play: #8 Tom Cat Tuesday (20-1 ML)
Picks- 8-3-9