After a big weekend in the Mid-Atlantic and closing week out west at Santa Anita Park focus for most horseplayers will shift regions over the next couple of weeks. The Ohio Derby card at Thistledown headlines the stakes racing this weekend, but most of the best action leading up to that will be in New York and Kentucky.

My focus for the next couple of weeks will be my old stomping grounds of Churchill Downs. Derby weekend is the best, but some of the strongest wagering opportunities in Louisville come over the final few weeks of their spring meet. Hopefully, we can make the most of it starting with Wednesday’s nine-race card that kicks off at 12:45 PM eastern. Here are a few horses I like on the first of five racing dates under the twin spires this week.


Race 3:
My first play of the week comes in this $50k maiden claimer at 7-furlongs over the main track where class dropper #5 Life’s Reward is likely to take a lot of public support. Not only does he exit protected maiden races last summer, but he is a Brad Cox trainee that will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. The Gary & Mary West homebred is obviously capable of winning, but is almost guaranteed to be an underlay regardless of result. For that reason, I will side against him with a runner that has some upside still.

#8 My Lucky Penny debuted against slightly tougher at Keeneland in late April for trainer Matthew Sims. The son of Connect did not break particularly well that afternoon and then was moved up the inside to battle with the 6-5-favorite in the early stages. Not only is being down on the inside taking pressure not ideal for a debut runner, but the track did not favor that trip either on April 24. Therefore, I can forgive the fact that My Lucky Penny faded badly late to finish fifth. Now, Sims has given him nearly two months and he draws to the far outside in this compact group of 8. This should allow jockey Luan Machado to relax his gelding a bit more in the early stages, which ideally leaves him with far more energy late. At his 8-1-ML offering, I am very much willing to take my chances.

Play: #8 My Lucky Penny (8-1 ML)
Picks: 8-7-5


Race 5:
The pace scenario is murky in this seven-furlong dash over the main track for $50k starter allowance foes, but the price should be right to take a swing with #3 Frosty Indulgence. The 5YO gelding has earned 2 of his 3 career victories over the all-weather, but ran very well on the surface switch and cutback to a sprint in mid-April for trainer Chris Davis. In fact, he lost by a nose at odds of 25-1 in a first-level allowance at Keeneland, but was placed first via disqualification. The concern is whether jockey Luan Machado can avoid getting caught in a tight spot along the inside off a moderate early tempo, so I will need close to his morning line price to gamble. That said, his dirt race prior to this at Ellis last summer saw him get caught up in an early battle and tire badly late. That is not likely to occur in this spot, but I am hopeful he can use some of that gate speed to find early forward position. If so, I am confident he enters this spot in the best form of his career.

Play: #3 Frosty Indulgence (10-1 ML)
Picks: 3-6-8


Race 8:
The pace should be honest at the very least in this $141k allowance at 6-furlongs over the main track given the presence of #4 Tough Catch and #8 Macho Music. Neither 4YO colt enters this spot in their best form regardless of pace and are unlikely to have much left late in the final furlong. I am hopeful the pace is fast enough to set things up for #6 Thoughtthatcounts. The son of Sky Mesa makes his second start of the meet after his second consecutive runner-up finish since returning to Kentucky this spring. The prior one came at odds of 22-1 at Keeneland and in both starts he was done no real favors. Last out over the off track here at Churchill Downs, the 5YO gelding ran into an off-track front running monster in Harrodsburg and prior to that he nearly overcame being caught wide throughout at a big price. Given his previous success over this racetrack and his ability to finish, Thoughtthatcounts looms large in the Wednesday feature.

Play: #6 Thoughtthatcounts (9-2 ML)
Picks: 6-2-5