It is closing day of the spring meeting at historic Churchill Downs meaning a massive pool is likely for the mandatory payout of the Derby City 6. The 20-cent minimum wager has a carryover of $197,923 heading into the final day of the stand. The sequence comes over the final six races, which happen to include a quartet of stakes events. Here are my thoughts after a Stephen Foster Day that saw Magnitude take them gate-to-wire under jockey Jose Ortiz.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Mae Town; 7 Satin Blue
Backups: None

Forecast: A third-level allowance for fillies and mares sprinting 5.5-furlongs over the grass kicks things off where I will go two-deep. 3-1-ML favorite #2 Mae Town makes her second start off the 11-month break for Brian Lynch after finishing second in an allowance event on June 3 to get her 4YO campaign started. She stalked three-wide that day, but was unable to get to Sunna, who got the jump and won her third consecutive race. Prior to heading to the sidelines, the Cave Brook Farm homebred rattled off three consecutive wins in turf sprints in Kentucky and is the clear one to beat. #7 Satin Blue though ran too good last out to not include. The Joe Sharp trained mare lacked early speed, but made up for it in a big way by running down lone speed #8 Itzel. She moves up in class, but retains the hottest rider on the continent. Expect her to be finishing with serious energy once again.

Picks: 2-7-8


Race 7: Debutante
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Pierette
Backups: 6 Lack of Riesling; 1 The Stork Club; 8 Sr Seventyone

Forecast: I will use a trio of backups, including long shots #1 The Stork Club and #8 Sr Seventyone, but I landed on #2 Pierette as my top selection in this 6-furlong dash for 2YO fillies over the main track. The $475k daughter of Girvin broke sharp from the rail in her first start and showed a lot of class and professionalism letting a pair of speeds outside her go while kindly relaxing on the inside. The filly she ran down came back to win by six in her next start during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival making this one’s victory appear that much stronger. Pierette will likely to need work out a similar trip in her first start against winners, but her ability to do so while in a tricky spot for a young horse gives me confidence she has a big chance to win right back as the ML second choice.

Picks: 2-1-6


Race 8: Bashford Manor
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 8 Hey Tuff Guy
Backups: 7 He is No Lie

Forecast: I lack creativity in this year’s Bashford Manor with the two favorites looking like the clear ones to beat in this 6-furlong dash for 2YOs over the main track. #7 He is No Lie is likely to get the jump on #8 Hey Tuff Guy. The California invader showed strong speed from the gate in his 4.5-furlong debut at Santa Anita Park last month and pulled away to win for fun. He has to prove he can stretch out to a furlong and a half in his first start versus winners, but California speed can be a massive weapon. Emisael Jaramillo has made the trip from the west coast to ride this son of Early Voting. He is unlikely to lack aggression early. Hey Tuff Guy did not break that well in his first start, but cruised up on the backstretch and crushed a field of 2YOs at odds-on on May 25. Brian Lynch has done a lot right in 2026 and his colt drawing outside his main rival is ideal. He will be tough to beat.

Picks: 8-7-9


Race 9: Maxfield (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Crown the Buckeye; 7 Deep Flame
Backups: 6 Prize Pick

Forecast: This 7-furlong affair for 3YOs conducted at 7-furlongs over the main track came up strong. #7 Deep Flame was made the 9-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, but perhaps it is the return of #4 Brant that is most noteworthy. The $3M OBS March ’25 purchase rattled off a pair of wins at Del Mar to kick off his career, but was beaten in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and has only competed once in the afternoons since. The cutback to one-turn is probably what he is looking for, but this is a tough spot for his return to the races. I prefer both the favorite Deep Flame and Ohio-bred #8 Crown the Buckeye. Deep Flame is hard to knock despite losing in both of his first two starts. The Juddmonte runner lost to serious colts in those MSW races without having things his way and then earned his first win on May 17. He draws favorably to the outside and could be tough. That said, Crown the Buckeye is likely to be a bigger price. The son of Yaupon chased the pace of Englishman early in the Pat Day Mile (G1), but gets class relief in his second start over this oval. He should get a great trip from his outside draw under Jose Ortiz.

Picks: 8-7-6


Race 10: Hanshin (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10 Tour Player
Backups: None

Forecast: The Hanshin is one of the more competitive races on the closing day slate, but I am going to take a stand with one-turn mile specialist #10 Tour Player. The son of American Pharoah has been in a number of strong barns, but found a home in the Whit Beckman barn this year after being purchased for $350k at horses of racing age sale at the end of 2025. Since then, he was outrun in the Fred Hooper (G3), but has bounced back with two wins going away. Tour Player has shown an affinity for this surface and draws favorably to the outside, which should allow jockey Tyler Gaffalione to work out a solid trip while avoiding likely traffic along the inside. He meets one of the toughest fields he has encountered through his 12-race career, but should be up for the challenge.

Picks: 10-5-4


Race 11:
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 2 Moona Lisa
Backups: 10 Audra

Forecast: A pair of logical second-time starters are not only likely to take a lot of the public support in this MSW event at 6.5-furlongs to close the sequence and meet, but also one will probably hit the wire first. #2 Moona Lisa is my top choice. The $1.9M daughter of Tiz the Law has only raced once despite being 4YO, but ran well in her first start late last month at Santa Anita. She was run down by her stablemate that afternoon, but did not break all that well and it was almost double-digit lengths back to third. The blinkers come off and Baffert has moved her to Kentucky to try to take advantage of the six-figure pools. She has a good chance to do so, but if she is to get run down again it will probably by #10 Audra. The Stonestreet Stables filly lacked speed on debut, but finished with some energy along the inside of the sloppy track that day in Louisville. She gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz and comes in off a nice work over this surface. Improvement should certainly be expected.

Picks: 2-10-8