The first Saturday of the Saratoga summer is a fun one with 11 races on the agenda, including the first four graded stakes races of the stand. Festivities kick off at 12:35 PM eastern with the stakes action getting started a little before 3PM. Here are my full card thoughts on the first of many big weekend days to attack over the next few months at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.

Race 1:
Grade: B
Use: 3 Lovely Christina

Forecast: The opener is a first-level allowance at event 6.5-furlongs where a pair of fast debut winners aim to bounce back from disappointing runs in their first start against winners. 3-5-favorite #4 Mashallah ran to her $1.25M sales price on April 23 at Keeneland, but battled early and tired late at 4-5 on May 30 in Louisville. #1 Feminism also failed to live up to expectations two days earlier under the twin spires after an impressive start to her career in Arkansas. Both are capable of rebounding, but are tougher to trust at their likely prices. I prefer #3 Lovely Christina. The Todd Pletcher trainee ran a couple of strong races over this surface to kick off her career before being caught wide in a mid-pack finish in the Frizette (G1). Pletcher has given her plenty of time and should have her fit off a solid series of drills over Belmont’s training track. I like her chances in her first start since last October.


Race 2:
Grade: C
Use: 6 New Rose; 8 Special Wood

Forecast: I wish I liked something in this first-level allowance over the Inner Turf because I do not trust the 8-5-ML favorite #2 Accent or 5-2-second choice #4 Eponine. Both are likely to find their way into the money, but crossing the wire first is another story. #6 New Rose ran well over this course last time, but her hot barn that week has cooled off quite a bit since. She makes the most sense though as a value option with class dropper #8 Special Wood slightly intriguing as well.


Race 3:
Grade: C+
Use: 7 Home Wrecker/6 Shelzawa

Forecast: A number of those entered in this MSW over the grass at 1 1/16-miles exit the race the aforementioned New Rose won up here last month. There was not much passing late in that one, which likely benefitted the top two, but at her ML price #7 Home Wrecker is worth consideration right back. Yes, the Danny Gargan has had a lot of chances and was in a favorable spot throughout in the pocket, but jockey Kendrick Carmouche never found clear sailing. She galloped out with plenty of interest and did beat 5-2-ML favorite #6 Shelzawa to the wire. Shelzawa is the likeliest winner in this spot making her second start in the States for Chad Brown, but backing these types is far from a long-term strategy. She will take mostly deserving support, but has been there at the wire before in France and come away without her first win. I will tread lightly overall.


Race 4:
Grade: C+
Use: 8 Grace and Grit/ 5 Queens Cat

Forecast: The first state-bred race of the afternoon is at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where once again I do not trust the ML favorite. #1 Lightning Strike is listed at 9-5 after a slow break led to disappointment for those that backed in her return to the races on June 3. The daughter of Bolt d’Oro dazzled on debut over the dirt, but that came back in early March ’25. She did not make it back to the races until her turf sprint try during the Belmont Racing Festival. She obviously has the upside to beat these based on her first start, but there are plenty of questions to answer, including her lack of speed from the gate and the inside draw. I prefer #8 Grace and Grit. She comes in having finished first or second in four straight races since entering the Amelia Green barn this winter. The blinkers have helped a filly that was up against the track last month. #5 Queens Cat never had a chance when not making the lead last out. She has to prove herself at this class level, but her speed could be a weapon.


Race 5: Sanford (G3)
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Pocket Listing/6 Jack’s Golden Goal

Forecast: I will live and die with California-bred #4 Pocket Listing in this six-furlong dash for 2YOs over the main track. The Doug O’Neill trainee popped the gate on debut and never considered looking back against far lesser at Santa Anita Park. Her gate speed should be more than this group can handle assuming she has the stamina to handle the final furlong.


Race 6:
Grade: B-
Use: 1 Punto Forty; 10 Diliello; 2 Cristobal; 4 Truman’s Commander; 12 King Puck

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this 5.5-furlong turf dash for NY-bred first-level allowance foes other than I do not like 7-2-ML favorite #11 Von Vollenhoven. The son of Big Brown has been stuck at this level for over a year and is winless on the grass. The outside draw should lead to a clean trip, but there are better wagering options. #1 Punto Forty is one of those. The son of Nyquist draws the rail and takes on state-bred competition for the first time after four races in Southern California. His speed could prove dangerous in a wide-open start to the Pick 6.


Race 7: Belmont Oaks (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Faithful Departed; 8 Abashiri/6 Fitz Right

Forecast: The first Grade 1 of the summer is this $600k 1 1/8-mile race for 3YO fillies over the Inner Turf where European invader #8 Abashiri is the one to beat. The daughter of Frankel comes to the States off of her third- place effort in the Irish 1000 Guineas (G1) in late May. She is the class, but the tote will show it. Perhaps #4 Faithfully Departed gets a bit overlooked at the windows despite a very impressive run and finish in the Regret (G3) on May 30. She has done little wrong, but is entered in this spot by a barn that has not started a horse at the Spa the last few years. Grant Forster is capable though and has been pointing to this race since minutes after her first graded stakes score. Do not underestimate her chances.


Race 8: Suburban (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 7 Antiquarian; 9 Stars and Strides

Forecast: The top two from last year’s Suburban (G2) #6 Phileas Fogg and #7 Antiquarian are both entered in this year’s event that drew a strong field of 11. Phileas Fogg is unlikely to have things his way on the front end though in 2026 with #2 Forged Steel drawn to his inside. The Gold Cup (G2) winner takes on the toughest field he has encountered, but is likely to ensure an honest pace. #7 Antiquarian, who missed by a head last year makes his third start off the bench. He gets some class relief after being involved early and tiring late in the Met Mile (G1). The decrease in competition and stretch out to a true route of ground both benefit his chances. #9 Stars and Strides is the up and comer. The Bill Mott trainee has been given time after back-to-back wins in March and April. He gets a class test today, but has shown no reason he can’t handle it.


Race 9: Belmont Derby (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 3 Remember Mamba; 10 Touch of Fire/6 Pacific Avenue

Forecast: The Belmont Derby came up loaded with several ways to go horses in this field of ten being logical at some level. #8 West End Kid is hard to knock off of his three consecutive wins for Will Walden, but has to answer to 1 1/8-mile test for the first time at a relatively short price. The same is true for #3 Remember Mamba, but he has been freshened and clearly pointed to this spot. I do not foresee the 9-furlong distance being an issue for the runner-up to Stark Contrast in the American Turf (G1) on Derby Day. He is the best finisher, if he works out the right trip. If not. I like #10 Touch of Fire. The Brad Cox trainee passed his first 1 1/8-test with flying colors in Kentucky last out and will get the jump on Remember Mamba. The outside draw is the biggest challenge in his first start against this level of competition.


Race 10:
Grade: B
Use: 6 Tuscan Sky; 7 Capital Idea

Forecast: My long shot play of the day comes in a competitive $130k allowance event at one-mile over the main track where I like #6 Tuscan Sky. The son of Vino Rosso made his first start off a nearly one-year break on May 22 for Todd Pletcher. He was outrun by the two speeds that day, but was by far the one finishing best from the back. He gets more ground after shaking off the rust at Aqueduct and hopefully is sitting on a big one before heading back into the stakes ranks.


Race 11:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Lyn’s Legacy/1 Morning Prayer; 11 Silly Season

Forecast: #11 Silly Season was made the 2-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona in this state-bred MSW event to close the card. She showed talent in her first start last November and has been on the sidelines since. The outside draw is a challenge, but has been training up to this spot and makes sense as the one to beat. In terms of wagering though, I prefer her main rivals given likely off-odds. #1 Morning Prayer ran too good to lose on debut and now moves to an inside draw. She should fire another big shot, but #3 Lyns Legacy is my top choice. Trainer Miguel Clement and his father Christophe have always been able to get a horse ready for a two-turn turf start to begin their career. She is out of a mare that ran second on debut for the same ownership group and draws favorably along the inside for her first start. Hopefully, we get the 5-1-ML offering.