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Scott Shapiro: Opening Day Ellis All-Turf Pick 3 | Saturday, July 4, 2026

by Scott Shapiro

July 4, 2026

They had to wait a couple of extra days due to mother nature, but later today Henderson, Kentucky celebrates the start of the Ellis Park meeting. The stand runs on a Friday-Sunday schedule through August 23 with a daily first post of 12:50 PM eastern time. The wagering menu is similar to past years with the $3 All-Turf Pick 3 being my favorite wager of the summer at the “Pea Patch.” Here are my thoughts on the first one of the meet, which kicks off with a first-level allowance and includes the featured Dade Park Dash.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Doctrine; 3 Exonerate; 2 Patrol Squad Six
Backups: None

Forecast: The sequence gets started with a competitive 1 1/16-mile event where I will oppose the two colts expected to take the most money based on the morning line. #4 Zakinthos added blinkers for the first time on June 5 at Churchill Downs for Brian Lynch and showed strong speed from the gate under jockey Rafael Bejarano. The shades stay intact and Bejarano stays in the saddle, but I will try to beat the Amerman Racing Stables colt that has burnt a good deal of money already. I also expect #9 Prepped to take a lot of public support for trainer Cherie DeVaux. He showed a strong turn of foot to break his maiden two months ago, but bypassed a stake last weekend in Louisville and lacks early speed. I will use the three inside horses equally in hopes of besting the ML favorites to kick things off. Both #1 Doctrine and #2 Patrol Squad Six have the tactical speed to find favorable forward position, while #3 Exonerate should be able to save ground throughout under Jaime Torres. Hopefully, one of them springs the upset to get things started.


Race 8: Dade Park Dash
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Tiz Mary’s Comet; 5 Trouble Calling
Backups: None

Forecast: The first stakes race of the summer at the “Pea Patch” is a 5.5-furlong turf dash for 3YOs where Donamire Farm homebred #5 Trouble Calling aims to make it two wins in a row for Greg Foley after handling an allowance field at Churchill Downs on June 7. The son of Dialed In saved ground early and pulled away late suggesting the move to the grass was not an issue. He got a good trip that day and took advantage. I have no real knocks other than his likely off odds, but the longest shot on the board also intrigues. #4 Tiz Mary’s Comet makes his first start for trainer Joe Sharp after six starts over the main track. The Louisiana-bred could have chose other roads, but Sharp opts to give her a shot on the grass versus stakes foes to see what he has. I will take the decision and more so his gate speed as positives. There is a shot the son of Good Samaritan finds himself loose on the lead under Axel Concepcion. He offers to much intrigue to not take a small swing with if he stays at double-digit odds.


Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Sumood
Backups: 1 Master Controller

Forecast: The card and first All-Turf Pick 3 of the meeting conclude with this second-level allowance event at 1 1/8-miles over the Ellis grass where there is not much speed signed on. I am hopeful that benefits the two inside runners. #2 Sumood is my top choice. The Shadwell Stable gelding has been consistent, but a bit camera shy through eight starts. He should get a favorable voyage under jockey Ben Curtis given the draw and the field he competes against. The stretch out to 9-furlongs benefits his chances as much as anyone. #1 Master Controller is more of a wild card. The son of Tapiture has only raced over the grass once and it came at 7-furlongs at Kentucky Downs on debut, so the move back to the sod is a question. That said, he draws the rail and has more speed than most in this group. Perhaps jockey Chris Emigh can use both to his advantage and get the jump on his rivals. At his price, he is absolutely worth including at some level.