A rare Monday of racing in the Blue Grass is upon us due to the excessive heat last week forcing Ellis Park to postpone their first two cards of the summer. The card originally scheduled for Opening Day was moved to later today when they kick things off for Day 3 of the 2026 season in Henderson at 12:50 pm ET. The nine-race card is headlined by a trio of allowance races and the $3 All-Turf Pick 3 that gets started in Race 5. Here are a few horses that are double-digits on the morning line that I give a serious chance of springing the upset.


Race 4:
A full field of 2YO fillies is set to travel 5.5-furlongs in this MSW event over the main track. The field consists of a lot of first-time starters, but I like one of the gals with experience. #6 By Her Decree debuted on May 28 at Churchill Downs where she broke fine and was sent aggressively from there to the front from her rail draw. The Jeremiah O’Dwyer was no match for late for off-the-pace winner Epic Reign, but that Steve Asmussen runner came back to run a good second in the Debutante as part of the closing day card in Louisville. Her speed is a weapon and she is likely to benefit with the move off the inside. Adam Beschizza was aboard in her first start and returns to ride this afternoon.

Play: #6 By Her Decree (10-1 ML)
Picks: 6-4-7


Race 5:
This non-winners of two claimer at one-mile over the Ellis sod kicks off the All-Turf Pick 3 and appears wide-open. The pace is likely to be honest if not contentious in this spot, which I am hoping sets things up for Henry Hinkle homebred #3 Got Gone. The 3YO filly makes her first start over this course after an even fifth-place finish against better at Churchill Downs on June 21. Trainer John Ennis keeps regular rider Alex Achard aboard the Hit It a Bomb filly that certainly has been no world beater thus far through seven starts, but should get a dream run along the inside. Trip is likely to make the difference in this one. I am hopeful that Got Gone gets the right one at a juicy price.

Play: #3 Got Gone (12-1 ML)
Picks: 3-9-1


Race 9:
The finale is a MSW event for fillies and mares at one-mile over the turf where I like #1 Marcheline. The $125,000 FTS October ’24 purchase makes her third lifetime start for trainer Vickie Oliver after a pair of turf sprints to kick off her career. The daughter of Not This Time broke slow and did little running in mid-April at Keeneland, but took a noticeable move forward with a solid finish and gallop out at 5.5-furlongs in Louisville on June 4. She is bred to want more ground and gets it along with a favorable inside draw at 4:42 eastern time. The pace should be honest, which should allow jockey Axel Concepcion to save ground early and come with a strong run late. Hopefully, we get the ML offering.

Play: #1 Marcheline (12-1 ML)
Picks: 1-8-9